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JayDubya

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According to this article we're in the middle of it.
Should happen any day now...

Fireworks in May & June

https://thedailycoin.org/2019/05/15/fireworks-in-may-june/

Fireworks in May & June

Miles Franklin sponsored this article by Gary Christenson. The opinions are his.

Jim Sinclair: “The party is over in mid-2019.”

Jim Rogers: “I see the worst stock market correction of your lifetime coming.”

Gary Christenson: “The fireworks will start in May—June 2019.”

Wall Street Cheerleaders: The bull market will continue for another year, probably many years. Long live QE, Fed stimulus, stock market rallies, FAANG stocks, blah blah blah.

A BOXING ANALOGY.

In the green corner from Wall Street, with over ten years of record stock market advances, we present “The Greatest Bull Market Ever.” Cheers…

In the red corner from middle America, hounded by decades of ever-increasing debt and consumer price inflation, we present “Fireworks in May and June.” Boos…

The Bull Market Scenario – Courtesy of Wall Street:

  • The S&P 500 Index fell to a low of 667 in March 2009, over ten years ago, and recently rose to 2,954. The decade-long advance has been consistent and strong. Unemployment is low, the Fed is accommodative and “official inflation” is tiny. If the Fed does not raise interest rates, more liquidity will flow into the market and stock prices will rise further.

  • A Presidential election will occur in 18 months—the silly season has begun. The sitting President wants to avoid a recession, stock market crash and higher interest rates because they will kill his reelection chances. He will support further market levitation.
This writer doesn’t buy the “strong economy” story. However, it’s tough to argue against massive liquidity injections and new debt levitating the market. Further, this writer thought the S&P 500 index peaked in 2015 and would fall thereafter. It fell but reversed higher. The Fed and banking cartel levitated the market, with trillions of new debts and the stock market climbed to new highs.

THE FIREWORKS IN MAY AND JUNE SCENARIO—A REVERSAL IS DUE:

  • There are many indications that stock indices have peaked or are reaching tops. This is an abbreviated list.

  • Margin debt is extreme and has peaked. If history is a guide, 2019 will print a multi-year top in stock indices.

  • Cheap and abundant debt enabled stock buybacks that boosted stock prices without improving company profitability or efficiency. The debt must be repaid or rolled. Unproductive debt is a drag on current and future earnings.

  • A second U.S. aircraft carrier strike group is threatening Iran. Wars are destructive, costly, inflationary, and often parallel stock market declines. What is the real reason for mid-East wars?

  • Pension plans are underfunded by several trillions of dollars. The coming recession will hurt those plans and increase shortfalls. This leads to angry retirees and reduced pension checks.

  • Many ratios and charts show an over-extended market “searching for a pin” to pop the stock market and debt bubbles.

  • The Elliott Wave people believe the five wave-count is complete and a major correction will follow.

  • The sitting President wants to be reelected – unlikely if the market crashes or the economy tips into a recession. Anti-Trump forces will be happy to crash the market to kill his election prospects.

  • Michael Snyder listed 19 facts that show the economy is NOT booming. A few:

  • S. auto sales were down 6.1% in April, the worst decline in 8 years.

  • Mortgage applications have fallen four consecutive weeks.

  • Luxury home sales have crashed in many cities.

  • Farm incomes are falling. The floods, tariffs and bankruptcies hurt. Food prices will rise.

  • The Retail Apocalypse has struck. Thousands of retail stores are closed, and 6,000 more stores will close in 2019.

  • Credit Card charge-offs at U.S. banks have risen to the highest level in nearly 7 years.

CHARTS THAT SHOW DANGEROUS CONDITIONS:

  • The NASDAQ 100 to S&P 500 ratio is high, like before the crash in 2000. The NASDAQ advance is narrow and frothy.




  • Commodity prices are too low compared to the S&P 500 Index. They will correct higher.




  • The silver to gold ratio has fallen to multi-decade lows. Expect silver to correct higher and rapidly compared to gold, debt, and the S&P 500 Index.




  • The Russell 2000 Index has not confirmed the highs in the Dow or the NASDAQ. The advance since 2016 has been narrow and frothy –a few high-flying stocks pulled major indexes higher.




  • Silver prices are at a two-decade low compared to the NASDAQ 100.




  • The NASDAQ 100 Index has broken a weekly uptrend line and appears ready to fall much farther. The same is true for the DOW and S&P 500.




  • Corporate debt to GDP ratio shows a credit cycle peak and probability of recession.




Margin Debt has peaked. Look out below.





CONCLUSIONS:


  • Perhaps the Fed liquidity pump, inexpensive interest rates, “happy talk,” tweets, and propaganda will extend the levitation several years longer. The stock market could rise into November 2020, but I doubt it.

  • Many charts, ratios, and patterns show the U.S. economy has reached peaks in the credit cycle and stock market. The next major move will probably be downward. Look out below.

  • The derivative monster may wake from its ten-year slumber. Deutsche Bank closed May 10 at $7.87, off 93% from its 2007 high. Risk of a derivative crisis is rising, as shown by collapsing Deutsche Bank stock prices.

  • A risk-reward analysis favored paper assets, leverage, ever-increasing debt, fiscal and monetary nonsense, and Wall Street cheerleaders for most of a decade. The above graphs suggest the risk-reward analysis is turning away from debt-based assets toward real assets and commodities.

  • The silver to gold ratio is too low based on decades of history. When it finally turns (we’ve been waiting for years) it will fly higher because silver and gold hold no counter-party risk while other assets are loaded with counter-party risk. Buy silver for protection.

Buy silver and gold for “insurance” and purchasing power protection from market crashes, derivative implosions, credit crunches, political nonsense, MMT, central bank predations, currency crashes, and counter-party risks.

Miles Franklin will convert debt-based devaluing currencies into real money—gold and silver. Give them a call at 1-800-822-8080.

Gary Christenson
The Deviant Investor
 

BarnacleBob

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SOVEREIGNTY, VS LIBERTY AND FREEDOM

Sovereignty exits in fact. Liberty and Freedom exist by permission of those who are in fact sovereign. Period. Therefore one is sovereign in fact because he and those who insure him, have sufficient capacity of violence to remain sovereign, and those who have liberty or freedom have so only by the permission of those who are sovereign. Period.
 

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Drove from Ohio to chicongo yesterday on the turnpike. Semi traffic heavy & running everywhere. New buildings going up in northern Indiana. Even the western congo burbs are knocking down old shopping centers & building new.

They might pull the rug out but flyover country is working.
 

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regarding gm and ford

gm tried that shit before they took the .gov bailout to save their asses from liquidation,

ford had $6B in cash on their balance sheet and gm wanted it,
so gm set up a meet with ford, but the ford was smart enough to know what they were up to,
so he posed the question, what happens after..............didn't like the answers as reportedly it was all about gm,
so the ford boy told them to gtfo of his offices

here they come again,

yeah ford has it tough, because they are working on their own moxy and they never did get a free bailout, nor did they have the chance to write down billions onto the taxpayer as gm did.

so of course gm should be in better shape

then add that the ptb are dying to keep the 'ho in charge at gm in charge, because it is a she

@#$ gm and everything gm

I wouldn't take a vehicle from them if you gave me one
 

JayDubya

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Americans’ Life Savings Disappear From Mexican Bank Accounts

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...rom-mexican-accounts?utm_source=pocket-newtab

Americans say money they had at Monex is gone and the bank isn’t helping them.

In late December, Kathy Machir called Marcela Zavala Taylor, her banker of nine years at Mexico’s Monex Casa de Bolsa, to get cash for contractors building her retirement home in San Miguel de Allende. Typically, Zavala would wire money or dispatch her assistant, Juan, on his motorcycle with an envelope full of pesos. Monex, with $5.2 billion in assets and operations in the U.S., was woven into the lives of Machir and the 10,000 other Americans who’ve moved to San Miguel de Allende.

The transfer didn’t happen. Juan didn’t show, Zavala didn’t return calls, and Kathy and Jim Machir discovered that their nest egg was gone. When the Machirs and other San Miguel expatriates met with Monex officials in early January, the bankers told some of them that about $40 million was missing from as many as 158 accounts, many belonging to English-speaking Americans. A dozen people interviewed by Bloomberg News say that bank statements Zavala sent them purporting to show full accounts were apparently falsified. Most say the bank has told them little since they filed complaints, and some say Monex tried to settle for far less than the balances owed. “When they told us we had 6 pesos [32¢] in our accounts, I just felt sick to my stomach,” Kathy Machir says. “Since then, they have not dealt with us in good faith.”

The scandal has upended the expatriate community in San Miguel, a city of 69,000 about 500 miles south of McAllen, Texas. Mostly retirees, they have to navigate a society with fewer legal and financial protections than they’d get in the U.S. Fraud is becoming more common, says Kevin Carr, founder of financial technology firm Finiden in Washington, D.C., and formerly the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s primary representative in Mexico. “Mexican authorities try to prosecute these cases but often aren’t successful.” In 2018 there were 7.3 million complaints of fraud involving 18.9 billion pesos, about $1 billion, according to Condusef, Mexico’s consumer protection agency. That’s more than double the number of claims in 2014.

Monex said in a statement that it’s looking into accusations against Zavala: “Legal action is continuing in the case, and details cannot be disclosed so as not to hinder the investigation.” The bank is working with clients and has settled with 70%, spokeswoman Eva Gutierrez said in a release Thursday. Alberto Loyola, an attorney representing Monex, declined to be interviewed. Some clients interviewed by Bloomberg News who settled for reimbursement say Monex required them to file charges with the Procuraduria General de Justicia, the equivalent of an Attorney General’s Office, in Mexico City, where the bank is headquartered, and to name Zavala. The agency didn’t respond to multiple requests for comment.

Zavala, who hasn’t been charged, said in a phone conversation that she’s living in San Miguel but declined to comment further: “By instruction of my lawyers I cannot say anything. Goodbye.” Peggy Taylor, Zavala’s mother, says her daughter is taking the fall. “Monex has a lot to do with this, too,” she says.

Zavala, who worked for Monex about 20 years, became San Miguel’s banker of choice by winning over expats with promises of fat returns on accounts she claimed were dollar-denominated and immune to the peso’s fluctuations. She was local royalty: daughter of former Mayor Manuel Zavala and his Texas-born wife, Taylor, an agent for Christie’s International Real Estate.

The Machirs, after discovering their account had been drained, met Loyola, the outside attorney representing Monex. They say he blamed Zavala; they also say she probably couldn’t have committed any fraud alone. “Don’t worry. We will make you whole again,” Kathy Machir recalls Loyola saying. Almost four months later, with no reimbursement in sight, the Machirs have been liquidating assets. In January, Kathy cashed in her life insurance policy, and in March they drove their 2012 Subaru to the U.S. and sold it for $9,300 to pay their contractors.

Kenneth Karger, a retired dentist in Fort Worth with property in Mexico, says Monex owes him about $400,000. He stopped getting full statements after June, as did the Machirs. Karger says Zavala told him Monex was changing to a new online banking system and sent emails showing a plausible balance. Later, Karger went through statements he retrieved from Monex and found unauthorized withdrawals and wire transfers.

A notarized letter that Karger’s attorney sent to top Monex executives on April 15 lists 12 allegations of fraud, including transferring money to people whom the depositors didn’t know, making unauthorized investments, and changing account login information. “If a relatively low-level employee can go into your account, change your email address for notifications, change your password, redirect deposits, withdrawals, and wire transfers,” Karger says, “then you have a kindergarten-level security system safeguarding tens of millions of dollars.”

Howard Haynes, 83, moved to San Miguel 22 years ago from Kansas City, Mo. Zavala, he says, was one of the first people he met. She pitched him on Monex in 2004, promising security. Early on, his account returned 14% with stocks such as Wal-Mart de Mexico. Zavala would get him funds on short notice. Haynes recommended her to friends. When Zavala stopped returning calls in December, Monex told him his account, which Zavala said held a substantial sum, had less than $13,000. Haynes says when he obtained his real statement, it showed money had been transferred to people he didn’t know.

Monex says it owes him only the money currently in the account, Haynes says. Company officials also told him that either he or his partner opened an account in his name and transferred almost all of this money to that new account at the company’s brokerage entity, Casa de Bolsa. Then the money disappeared. Haynes says he never authorized a new account or a transfer of his money. “Part of this is my fault,” he says. “I wasn’t even remotely suspicious.”

Alysann Posner, a former vice president of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange who lives in San Miguel, says she had trouble getting timely statements from Monex since she opened her account four years ago. On Dec. 18 she tried to transfer her funds to another bank. When the transfer didn’t happen quickly, she started making calls. Monex told her the account and that of her mother, who is 86, were reduced to almost nothing. Posner says Monex has offered her about 60% of what she believes she is owed and she’s suing Monex in Mexican courts.

The bank has settled with some customers, but for less than they think they were owed. Cory Gray, 86, says she opened a Monex account six years ago and has recently had a tough time getting regular statements. She last heard from Zavala on Dec. 18 and was later told by Monex that she has next to nothing in her account. Monex offered her 70¢ on the dollar. She took it, afraid that fighting Monex would leave her with no cash. “I thought I would get nothing,” Gray says. “That’s why I settled.”

Bruce Brown, a retired sound engineer from Australia, says he got his full $250,000 back after filing a complaint against Zavala with the Procuraduria General de Justicia. But after Brown got his check, a Monex representative called and asked for $50,000. The bank, the man said, had overpaid. “I told them to shove it,” Brown says. —With Justin Villamil

(Updates the fourth paragraph with a further statement from Monex. An earlier version of this story corrected the first name of Howard Haynes in the 10th paragraph.)

BOTTOM LINE - Financial fraud is exploding in Mexico, and American expats with accounts at Monex appear to be among the latest victims.
 

Scorpio

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Ahhhh Haaaaa Haaaaa Haaaaa!!!

too funny,

you move to a broken communist country and then you expect any different, seriously?

even more fun, they use proof of SS from the rest of us to show these countries they have the financial wherewithall to exist

OMFG this is just too rich...........errrr poor

they go there to extract from those that are there, only to find out they are being extracted from
(moving there because of high cost of living, medical costs, etc)

checkmate
 

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Thar she blows!

sc.png
 

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Kinda burnt on all the negativity and it got me thinkin........

So I did some msm reading the last month or so. One web site had pelosi says bar lied to congress headline for 3 weeks! No wonder these people are so deranged.

Just imagine if we got a reactive govt that were getting things done & never gotten ourselves into this mess. Debt, illigals, welfair, obamacare, unions that destroy instead of protect, education system that worked, respect for others and their property. Can you even fathom how great this country would be?
 

FunnyMoney

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... Can you even fathom how great this country would be?
If we had acted upon Eisenhower's warning and those from past constitutionalists, then yes, every American would have a lot more disposable income and time. Time to do things like walk their dogs, visit with relatives, properly raise their children, water their gardens, participate in social and community events, and so on. The average American would likely be buying 70% of their products from American manufacturing and would be working a 4 day week with at least 4 weeks vacation per year.

Actually the list is extensive.

There was a thread a GIM1 that did some analysis on the "what if" …. what if we had operated more like our Founders had intended.
Essentially the middle class would be larger and income much higher than what they claim today is middle class, and those people would be of course spending that extra wealth inside the nation, further expanding the middle class experiment.

Since 1776, powerful financial stakeholders have seen this as a major threat to the dishonest system they control. Liberty is a verb. You don't get it passed down to you and then simply pass it down to others. Liberty is something that requires constant watering and nourishment. This requires a society which is educated to this regard.
 

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FB_IMG_1559367148944.jpg
 

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3p9gx0.png
 

JayDubya

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It's not quite that straightforward. Here's some of the wording:

"A person driving an automobile who is exercising due care and injures another person who is participating in a protest or demonstration and is blocking traffic in a public right of way is immune from civil liability for such injury."

If a driver intentionally hits a protester or acts in an otherwise careless manner, they will not be immune from civil liabilities, according to the bill.
 

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I guess I can quit mounting that tree shredder on the front of my truck......:don't    know2:
 

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JayDubya

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From Simon Black:

My bank in Denmark just offered me a NEGATIVE rate of interest to borrow money

June 04, 2019
Copenhagen, Denmark

[Editor’s Note: Today’s note was penned by one of our international contributing editors.]

Yesterday I called my bank in Denmark, Nordea, and couldn’t believe what they told me…

They offered to lend me money at MINUS 0.12% for a ten-year mortgage.

In other words, the bank would PAY ME to take out a loan.

Of course, as a Sovereign Man editor, I’ve written a lot about negative interest rates. But most of these cases were always reserved for big banks or institutions.

That no longer seems to be the case...

Now, negative interest rates ARE the norm. Thousands, if not tens of thousands of Danes will go out and take out mortgages that will pay them every month.

This is completely mind-boggling to me. But it just highlights how broken the financial system really is.

Everything about this is in complete violation of the law of prosperity Simon Black’s been writing about for years: produce more than you consume and invest the difference.

Now, institutions and governments are incentivizing people to consume, instead of to save. In fact, they’re paying people to go into debt.

That is not how prosperity is created. Instead of encouraging people to invest their surplus capital in productive investments, people are penalized for saving in the first place.

It’s like everything has been turned upside down.

Some of the most popular investments on the planet are the ones that burn the most cash (Tesla, Netflix, Uber, etc.)

Insolvent governments in Europe are able to borrow at negative yields, with no afterthought whatsoever as to the consequences.

And bankrupt governments like Argentina are able to borrow for 100 YEARS and pay next to nothing for it (even though Argentina went bankrupt twice in the last thirty years alone).

None of this makes any sense.

Here in Europe, bank deposits yield close to 0%.

In 2016, the Swiss government even asked its citizens to delay their tax payments as long as possible, because the government didn’t want to pay negative interest rates on those balances.

And in the United States, banks rob their customers blind time and time again by lying, stealing and deceiving them.

It’s extraordinary to me that these are the options we have with our money today.

Luckily, it isn’t all doom and gloom.

As my friend Simon says it: the world is a big place… and sometimes, we can make this insanity play to our advantage.

Just in the same way that I can get paid to borrow money…

And that bankrupt governments can borrow at negative yields….

And that companies losing BILLIONS each year with no end in sight can be some of the most popular investments in the world…

It also works the other way around.

Occasionally, we can find extremely well-managed businesses that are profitable, have a pristine balance sheet and pay generous dividends to their shareholders, that are selling for rock-bottom prices.

Our in-house Chief Investment Officer, Tim Staermose, editor of the 4th Pillar, spends his time scouring the corners of global stock markets for these opportunities.

One example he found was a boring Japanese company called Kitagawa Industries.

It had $151 million of cash in its bank account… Yet the value of ALL its shares was just $114 million-- 24% lower than its net cash balance.

In other words, you could have theoretically bought every single share of Kitagawa for $114 million, put the entire $151 million bank balance in your pocket, shut the company down, and walked away with a tidy $37 million profit.

Make no mistake, this wasn’t some hot cash-burning start-up. It was a mature, profitable business with a long and successful operating history.

There was absolutely no good reason for it to be selling at such a large discount and no rational shareholder would ever agree to a deal like that.

But markets aren’t rational… so Tim recommended members of our flagship investment service, the 4th Pillar, to buy the shares.

And sure enough, less than one-and-a-half years later, a competitor recognized the opportunity and took over the entire company-- generating a 249% return for our members in just 17 months.

As you can see, there are always pockets of value where you can make the insanity of the financial system work for your benefit. It just takes patience and willingness to do the hard work to find them.

For over eight years, Tim has been putting in the hard work for our members.

In fact, he just published his 100th 4th Pillar issue where he shared his latest thoughts on ten more deeply undervalued opportunities - just like Kitagawa Industries - that are trading at BUY levels right now.

You can click here to download a redacted preview of one of these opportunities. Inside, Tim shares the details of a company so awash with cash that it's paying an astronomical dividend.

And to celebrate our 100th issue we’re offering a rare 50% discount for the next few days. Click here to learn more about the 4th Pillar and Tim’s latest opportunities.

To your freedom,



Alex Monéton
 

BarnacleBob

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seen quite a few articles saying the dollar is going down (which it isn't), dollar primed to tip over, etc

I get a kick out of so many claiming the end of king dollah'

meanwhile it continues to trade above 97 and holding that level easily

for those that claim otherwise, they must first ask a simple question, if no dollar, then what?

therein lies the real context
 

Scorpio

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remember it wasn't too long ago and everyone was freaking as the 10 yr went over 3%?

it has since been on a protracted decline to just above 2% now, a massive move in a relatively short time

now the fed is even stating the possibility to cut rates is open, as they may try to catch up with what the market is saying


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Down the rabbit hole

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WHAT IS THE COST OF LIES?

---"Every lie we tell incurs a debt to the truth. Sooner or later, that debt is paid."---

---“To be a scientist is to be naïve. We are so focused on our search for truth, we fail to consider how few actually want us to find it. But it is always there, whether we see it or not, whether we choose to or not. The truth doesn’t care about our needs and wants. It doesn’t care about our governments, our ideologies, our religions. It will lie in wait for all time. Where I once would fear the cost of truth, now I only ask… ‘what is the cost of lies?’.”---

---The last lines of HBO's Chernobyl

(via Matt Lawlor)
 

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Fed Closes Books On JPMorgan's $6 Billion Derivatives Loss ("London Whale")
https://www.bloomberg.com//news/arti...d-closes-order

JPMorgan's London Whale Saga Ends Quietly as Fed Drops Its Order
By Jesse Hamilton
June 6, 2019
Bank released from enforcement case sparked by $6 billion loss
JPMorgan satisfied requirements to fix internal controls: Fed

JPMorgan Chase & Co. has formally put to rest a particularly embarrassing chapter in its history: the so-called London Whale trading debacle that triggered a loss of at least $6.2 billion for the Wall Street bank.

With the Federal Reserve terminating a 2013 order against JPMorgan, regulators as of Thursday consider the case closed. The Fed said it’s dropping the matter “on evidence of substantial improvements by the firm,” the central bank said in a statement.

The Fed action had demanded that New York-based JPMorgan get a better handle on internal systems that allowed its Chief Investment Office to expose the bank to tremendous losses on derivatives bets. The other key regulator that had punished JPMorgan -- the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency -- brought an end to its case last month.

So concludes a drama that once led to a U.S. Senate investigation and a significant cut to Chief Executive Office Jamie Dimon’s pay. The trading losses also prompted about $1 billion in fines and an admission the lender violated securities law, along with criminal cases involving former bank employees.

The closing of the Fed order isn’t expected to have any business impact on JPMorgan. A bank spokesman declined to comment on Thursday’s announcement.​
 

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Americans are suddenly defaulting on their credit cards
is this a case of the economy is exactly what caused this?

wherein people are working, but wanting stuff now, so they use their card
then other expenses get in the way as they have zero idea of where their dough really is going
meaning that paycheck shows up and there isn't enough to go around

financial literacy problem and not economic ?

in addition extraction by those chasing yield, going down market and presuming they will be smart enough to pull back from or before the full burn?
 

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is this a case of the economy is exactly what caused this?

wherein people are working, but wanting stuff now, so they use their card
then other expenses get in the way as they have zero idea of where their dough really is going
meaning that paycheck shows up and there isn't enough to go around

financial literacy problem and not economic ?

in addition extraction by those chasing yield, going down market and presuming they will be smart enough to pull back from or before the full burn?
First generation using direct deposit & debt cards....... there are no coincidences............................
 

BarnacleBob

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BarnacleBob

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BarnacleBob

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Only the jealous, lazy & incompetants of society can hate "real" capitalism!

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