Ramblings

[Scorpio]

fed announce is tomorrow am shoot,

I don't need anymore down action in metals,
am not looking to buy anymore door stops,

 

[Uglytruth]

Just sayin................. watch out for them bears!

 

[Scorpio]

seeing a bit of front running this am in metals,
before the speech of the fed

gold and silver both showing a bit of weakness going into the 9am central speech

as we stated though, some persons already have hard copies of what is to be said

 

[Scorpio]

from current activity, after the speech, we have metals up a bit,
somewhat tepid response

but the fed didn't put much out there, left it primarily as a guessing game, and didn't state 'starting taper' or anything else to rile things up,
again reiterated that inflation is of a concern but transitory, going against the other fed heads that see inflation as more concerning

stocks are setting new highs, and everything is well in the world

cryptos are catching a bid as they realize the fiat money is still wide open

 

[Scorpio]

some dollar weakness is showing up as the market realizes no real change to current policy to separate it from the other comparative fiats
but we are still in the high 92's

 

[BarnacleBob]

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the so-called core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, vaulted in the 12 months through July to levels not seen in 30 years.

The Commerce Department said in a release Friday that core PCE rose 3.6 percent over the year in July, matching last month’s level, which was an increase from 3.5 percent in May and 3.1 percent in April.

The last time the core PCE inflation gauge saw a similar year-over-year vault was in July 1991, while the highest level the measure has hit is 10.2 percent in February 1975, when the economy was gripped in a troubling upwards wage-price spiral fueled by rising inflation expectations on the part of consumers.

The Fed looks to core PCE as a key inflation measure that informs its monetary policy, which has an inflation target of a longer-run average of 2 percent.

On a monthly basis, the core PCE gauge rose 0.3 percent between June and July, after rising 0.5 percent the prior month, suggesting inflationary pressures may have peaked.

It comes as Fed officials are meeting virtually for an annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on Friday, with investors watching closely for signs of when and how the central bank may begin to roll back its extraordinary support measures for the economy. In response to the pandemic hit to the economy, the Fed last year dropped interest rates to near zero and set out on a massive asset purchasing program, buying around $80 billion in Treasury securities and $40 billion in mortgage securities per month.

In a speech Friday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell addressed inflationary pressures, acknowledging a “sharp run-up in inflation” driven by the rapid reopening of the economy while reiterating his oft-repeated view that price pressures would moderate once supply-side shortages and bottlenecks further abate.

 

[Uglytruth]

Reading comments after some posts today on another forum. One was very interesting THEORY!

Right in front of us we know they did a covid test with a vaxxed & control group (England if I remember right).
Then they ended the test & vaxxed the entire control group. Why..................................... to destroy evidence.

Soooooooooooooooooooooo
They need to have all unvaxxed serf's jabbed ASAP.
Why the timeline?
Before the side effects of the vaxxed start kicking in high gear.
What side effects you ask.
Everything that is heading the vaxxed way.
Those who are not vaxxed are healthy and it will be obvious to everyone they took the death jab their days are numbered.
Booster jab anyone?

 

[chieftain]

I would rather spend 45 minutes reading an in depth written discussion rather than watch those 30-40 minute videos on youtube/rumble/lbry.

When one bangs out video after video that are beginning to number in the thousands and no new information is presented in each video... I'd rather read.

 

[Scorpio]

exactly chief,

most vids suck anyway,
people carrying on and can't get to the point,
doing the billable hours thing with jootube

F@#$ 'em,

I ain't supporting them or jootube any more than I want to
it actually has become quite sad how few can or will read anymore,
as they prefer their brainwashing as the slaves do with their telebisions,

then they sit here and point fingers at those as lesser beings...............
even worse, believing with all their might that there is a difference

JMO of course

 

[chieftain]

exactly chief,

most vids suck anyway,
people carrying on and can't get to the point,
doing the billable hours thing with jootube

F@#$ 'em,

I ain't supporting them or jootube any more than I want to
it actually has become quite sad how few can or will read anymore,
as they prefer their brainwashing as the slaves do with their telebisions,

then they sit here and point fingers at those as lesser beings...............
even worse, believing with all their might that there is a difference

JMO of course

When such an opinion is of greater worth than thousands of "billables" that are being presented as fact...

 

[BarnacleBob]

 

[Joe King]

it actually has become quite sad how few can or will read anymore,

That's true, but imho there is a place for vids too.
A lot of times I'll listen to them as I'm doing other things. Works well for financial and political vids, as those are mostly just talking. To read that same stuff requires that I only read.
No different than puttin' on some music while cleaning the house, except that with some of these vids I might actually learn something.

Just my two cents on the vid vs reading thing.

 

[BarnacleBob]

 

[Scorpio]

sure enough do find it interesting that the new inflation numbers were out this am,

and they were larger than expected and far greater than anything except most recent past

so gold and silver decide they should go down in this environment

well I'll be

 

[BarnacleBob]

sure enough do find it interesting that the new inflation numbers were out this am,

and they were larger than expected and far greater than anything except most recent past

so gold and silver decide they should go down in this environment

well I'll be

Deflation and down the PM's go....

Disinflation and down the PM's go....

Inflation and down the PM's go.....

WTF???

 

[JayDubya]

This is the Most Terrifying Map in the World... Here's What It Means for You
by Chris MacIntosh

If there ever was a time when you could see a trend solidly in motion, now is it.

That the Western, previously civilized world is in decline has been known to anyone with an ounce of curiosity and little analysis of data points.

Before Xi’s ascension to power one could have argued that this trend was worrying, but not terrifying.

What makes it terrifying is that Xi managed to abolish the two-term limit for his presidency with an overwhelming majority (2,959 to 2 and 3 abstaining votes — no prizes for guessing where those 5 guys are now). He then proceeded to have his name enshrined in the constitution. Seriously. You may recall Xi’s "anti-corruption" purge from a few years back. Well, this was Xi’s own internal secret police, designed to kill (literally) any opposition from within the CCP (Chinese Communist Party).

Today’s China, or should I say CCP, is not the same CCP of Deng Xiaoping. Today's CCP is an ideological global weapon of control, and it is spreading like a cancer.

Which brings me to…

To Tech, or Not to Tech?​

Sometimes knowing where not to be is just as important as knowing where to be since all investments are a matter of opportunity costs and probabilities.

The implosion of Chinese tech continues.

One can argue as to what the particular catalyst for this selloff was. Certainly, the CCP going after Didi (China’s clone of Uber) hasn’t helped things, though this is peculiar to me. Because, when Jack Ma fell afoul of the CCP and disappeared (still yet to be seen) with Ant financial now a wholly owned subsidiary of the CCP, it was clear that Xi was implementing his three Cs: control, consolidate, continue.

It really is just nationalisation of resources with a carefully constructed veneer to pretend it really isn’t that at all. But that’s all it is — a veneer.

Truth is, much of the world works like this, including Putin's Russia. China is moving towards controlling the key industry sectors (not that they didn’t have significant control before because they did) with less pretentiousness than before. Why?

The same reason they took Hong Kong. Because they could. And they could because the rest of the world is distracted, ironically by the Covid pantomime created by Fauci, Gates, Klaus, and their fellow technocrats.

All of this allows the CCP to do things they had not previously been able to do without repercussions, both politically and economically.

So now we have this gap between QQQ (US tech) and CQQQ (China tech), and the ratio between the two tech ETFs closed at another all-time low.

The Chinese tech regulatory issue has been going on for months, but the big question here is what is priced in.

What about the longer-term view? Is US tech any better?

US tech manipulates and owns the government whereas in China the government manipulates and owns China tech.

US investors have been buying up China tech as if it’s the same as US tech. Clearly it isn’t.

But the other question that is worth thinking about is what the US tech investors don't know about the US tech? Do they still or should they still trust them to the extent that they do?

Well, you probably guessed my answer to that, but really what I think doesn’t matter because what the market thinks is what matters, at least for now.

Right now, the debate by the dolly birds on CNBC is around whether or not to buy these now cheaper Chinese tech stocks.

I would say a better question is if you can’t trust Chinese tech (and you clearly can’t), then pray tell, why would one trust US tech?

Do you chase US tech (like everybody else), puke Chinese tech (like everybody else), or start looking at the contrarian spread?

We are still a long way off buying China tech here as I don’t like putting out fires with my face… and that is what I think you'd be doing here. But buying US tech feels decidedly dicey as well.

So what do we do with all this?

We watch and see where these capital flows may go, and for now, we buy deep value.

 

[Scorpio]

as you bring up selling,

thought it interesting yesterday where metals were hit along with cryptos and bonds,
after a release of solid or higher inflation numbers

there was minor selling in stocks, but the selling in some of these other markets was noticeable
even more so curious when you factor in the dollar did nothing, relatively flat

then I ask, what is up?

was the selling of metals and crypts a consolidation of forces or a 'just in case' trade?
where some were stocking up on margin to protect against a overall slam in stocks?

there is a whole lot of itching and asking for a correction in stocks,
with the seemingly only real question being, how much? 5% 10% ?
as these people seem to be lining up to buy any breaks that occur

 

[Scorpio]

Aug shipping rates up 27% year over year

no drivers and no trucks to get the freight moved

 

[chieftain]

^ The cost to move freight or the amount of freight Scorp?

 

[Scorpio]

cost to move freight from fob to destiny
trucking

 

[chieftain]

Linehaul rates down here are down this month, diesel is cheaper and more Indians are driving.

 

[JayDubya]

CP reemerges as KCS favourite while CN faces activist proxy fight​

https://financialpost.com/transport...favourite-while-cn-faces-activist-proxy-fight

Kansas City Southern's change in course spurred one of Canadian National's largest shareholders to move to oust its CEO

Stefanie Marotta


The battle to create a North American railway system took another dramatic turn this week, as Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd. reemerged as the favourite to acquire Kansas City Southern and rival Canadian National Railway Ltd. was forced to turn its attention to a proxy fight from an activist shareholder.

Canada’s largest railways have been sparring over a potential merger with Kansas City Southern since Canadian National outbid Canadian Pacific in April. A deal with either suitor would create the first railway spanning Canada, the United States and Mexico.

But KCS spurned Canadian National over the weekend and pivoted back to its competitor’s offer. The change in course spurred one of CN’s largest shareholders to move to oust its chief executive officer.

TCI Fund Management Ltd. — which owns a five per cent stake in Canadian National and eight per cent in Canadian Pacific — on Monday launched a proxy fight to unseat CEO Jean-Jacques Ruest and four board members.

The London-based investment manager first called on Canadian National to abandon its bid in May. On Monday, it said that that the railway operator’s failure to accomplish the deal was the result of “flawed decision making.”

The move comes after Kansas City Southern said on Sunday that it deemed Canadian Pacific’s US$27 billion offer to be superior to Canadian National’s US$30 billion deal in the wake of a U.S. regulator’s decision to reject a key component of Canadian National’s bid. In August, the Surface Transportation Board (STB) denied Canadian National’s request to create a voting trust, through which Kansas City Southern shareholders would have received the US$325-per-share offer while regulatory approval was still pending.


“The Board consistently misjudged the STB and displayed flawed decision making, committing billions of dollars to an ill-conceived pursuit of an unattainable asset,” said TCI founder and managing partner Chris Hohn. “CN should focus on getting better rather than bigger.”

TCI named former chief operating officer of Nebraska-based railway operator Union Pacific Corp., Jim Vena, as a candidate for the top position and proposed removing four directors, including Robert Pace, Kevin Lynch, James O’Connor and Laura Stein.

Vena previously worked for Canadian National for 40 years, moving through the ranks from brakeman to chief operating officer before his departure in 2016. He later joined Union Pacific in 2019.

TCI also named its four replacement board candidates: rail operator MidRail Corp. chairperson Gilbert Lamphere, freight transportation company XPO Logistics Inc. director Allison Landry, former Canadian National executive Paul Miller, and Union Pacific’s former chief financial officer Rob Knight.

Canadian National acknowledged TCI’s announcement in a press release, but said that it has not yet received a formal request for a shareholders’ meeting.

The chance that Vena is appointed as CEO is a “highly probable scenario,” according to Desjardins analyst Benoit Poirier.

“Mr. Vena is a seasoned rail executive,” Poirier said in a note to clients, adding that Canadian National maintained its leadership position in operational efficiency during his tenure as chief operating officer and that he went on to deliver similar results at Union Pacific.

But Canadian National could still make another bid to acquire Kansas City Southern. The U.S. railway said that Canadian National has five days — or until Friday evening — to counter with a better offer or risk losing the deal.

“CN is continuing to evaluate all options available to us,” spokesperson Mathieu Gaudreault said in an email. “CN will make carefully considered decisions in the interests of all CN shareholders and stakeholders and in line with our strategic priorities.”

More On This Topic​

1. 
   

   CP Rail gives Kansas City Southern deadline on $27-billion offer after CN deal hits snag​

2. 
   

   TCI opens proxy fight with CN to oust CEO after Kansas City Southern merger flop​

3. 
   

   Kansas City Southern plans to accept Canadian Pacific Railway's $27 billion bid​

Meanwhile Kansas City Southern has until end of day on Monday to accept Canadian Pacific’s lower offer, which would still require shareholder approval. The STB approved Canadian Pacific’s proposed voting trust in August

In its ruling rejecting Canadian National’s voting trust, the regulator said that the Montreal-based railway’s proposed merger could harm competition. While Canadian National’s and Kansas City Southern’s rail networks overlap in a 70 mile (113 km) stretch between Baton Rouge and New Orleans in the state of Louisiana, the railways also operate tracks that run parallel through the central United States. As a result, the proposed combination could be less compelled to compete.

“Canadian National can raise its price, but we think that’s highly unlikely,” Deutsche Bank analyst Amit Mehrotra said in a note to clients. “We anticipate Canadian National will likely back down given the recent STB decision on its voting trust, and Canadian Pacific will ultimately merge with Kansas City Southern.”

Even if Canadian National were to raise its bid, its offer could have less than a ten per cent chance of succeeding with STB’s rejection of the voting trust and pushback from TCI, according to Scotiabank analyst Konark Gupta.

“That said, as we have seen in the past six months, anything is possible in the KSU saga, so we would not assume that Canadian National Railway has thrown in the towel just yet,” Gupta said in a note to clients.

 

[JayDubya]

Online Everything and the End of the New Car Dealership as We Know It​

https://mishtalk.com/economics/the-end-of-the-car-dealership-as-we-know-it

Covid and supply chain disruptions have accelerated the trend of buying cars online. Electric cars and demographics add nails to the coffin.

The American Car Dealership Is for Sale

The Wall Street Journal has an article on the new model for dealerships, less inventory and more online shopping.

Nora Naughton, WSJ writer says Everything Must Go! The American Car Dealership Is for Sale.

The way people buy and sell cars is changing. More of it is happening online as buyers get comfortable with completing transactions remotely. It is a shift that started before the pandemic but accelerated over the last 18 months as Covid-19 spurred people to do more of their shopping from home and demand for cars unexpectedly surged.

The auto dealership, as a result, could soon look like other parts of the business world upended by e-commerce. National chains, instead of local small businesses, will set prices and give salespeople less room to haggle. Dealers will hold fewer cars on the lot and operate more like service-and-delivery centers, using their dealerships as hubs where customers can pick up vehicles ordered online and get them serviced.

Tesla’s no-dealership model now is being adopted by other electric-vehicle startups such as Rivian Automotive and Lucid Group Inc. These fledgling firms, backed by heavyweights such as Amazon.com Inc., are lobbying to change dealer-franchise laws in many states so they also can sell vehicles directly to shoppers.

Another blow to the traditional dealership model came from the surge of online-only used car sellers, which don’t have the same state franchise restrictions as new car sellers. One such upstart was Carvana Co. , an Arizona firm founded in 2012. While still small—less than 1% of the used-car market—Carvana sold 244,111 vehicles last year, up 37% from in 2019, and its stock popped in recent months. As of Friday, it was worth nearly $57 billion, more than that of Ford.

Some dealers say the only way to survive long term is to get bigger. One company doing that is Lithia Motors Inc., a large publicly traded dealership chain based in Oregon. In recent years, CEO Bryan DeBoer began scooping up dealerships large and small with the aim of creating a bigger chain with a store within 100 miles of every U.S. vehicle shopper. In 2020 Lithia also launched Driveway, a website where car shoppers can perform many of the functions they would in a physical car dealership from home, such as getting an estimate on a vehicle trade and arranging for financing to purchase a new vehicle.

AutoNation, the nation’s largest car-dealership chain by sales, plans to open 130 used car stores nationwide by 2026. CEO Mike Jackson said those dealerships will operate more like delivery centers, where customers pick up vehicles that were purchased through its website. He also expects this approach will eventually be applied to new vehicles, as well.

Franchise Laws

Some states, including Texas, have franchise laws to prevent online sales. But Tesla's Settlement with the State of Michigan in 2020 was nearly a complete victory for Tesla.

There are two important terms to the settlement: (1) the state will not contest Tesla’s right to operate service centers in Michigan through a subsidiary; and (2) the state will not contest Tesla’s right to market cars to consumers in Michigan through a “gallery” model. This settlement allows Tesla to sell and service cars in Michigan as it wants, and thus represents a total victory for Tesla in Michigan. It could also be a tipping point in Tesla’s ongoing battle for the right to engage in direct distribution in other states.

The customer will then have to complete the actual sales transaction over the Internet or telephone with Tesla in California (or wherever Tesla houses its sales function). The car will then be delivered to the customer in Michigan, which will increase the convenience of the buyer experience.

The car dealer’s lobby, which has fought tooth-and-nail to stop Tesla from distributing directing on a state-by-state basis, is clearly a big loser. Michigan, the state with the most pro-dealer law on direct distribution, has now opened the doors for new EV companies to bypass the traditional dealer model entirely.

Just as there is no good basis in public policy to limit Tesla’s right to engage in direct distribution, there is also no reasonable basis to prohibit it to traditional car manufacturers either. As I have previously detailed at length, there is simply no consumer protection reason that any car company shouldn’t be able to choose how it sells cars to consumers.

Maker-Dealer Relationship

Since there is no good reason for franchise laws, I salute Tesla for its victory.

Dealerships will not go away for a while because many people still want the look and feel. But Covid forced inventory shrinkage and that will stick.

With inventory down, available color and feature selections are down. To get the precise mix of color and features, one will need to order online anyway.

Demographics and Attitudes In Play

Two points the WSJ article missed are demographics and attitudes.

Unlike their boomer parents who had a huge love affair with cars their entire life, millennials and zoomers don't. And they are very prone to buying stuff online.

What will M's and Z's do if they can find a car hundreds of dollars cheaper online?

They may go to the dealer to see a car but if ordering online saves money, that's what's going to happen.

What About Service?

The future car is electric and electric vehicles have fewer moving parts. They will require less service.

How fast this happens is debatable but GM believes all electric by 2035.

Online Everything

"Everything Must Go!" is a bit too much, but that is surely the general direction.

Covid and supply chain disruptions accelerated trends towards "online everything" already in place due to demographics, changing attitudes of M's and Z's, and the push towards electric.

 

[Scorpio]

dealerships around here have already went to 'one price concept' or 'no haggle' or whatever else they want to call it

point is, the salesman is a order taker only and for paperwork completion,
they are not allowed to become great salesmen, maximizing profit and all that jazz

they have went to a plug and play salesman model, which then negates much of the need for a boots on the ground person

 

[Casey Jones]

That's true, but imho there is a place for vids too.
A lot of times I'll listen to them as I'm doing other things. Works well for financial and political vids, as those are mostly just talking. To read that same stuff requires that I only read.
No different than puttin' on some music while cleaning the house, except that with some of these vids I might actually learn something.

Just my two cents on the vid vs reading thing.

I can no longer watch a vid. Nothing wrong with my eyes, as far as I know; nothing wrong with my brain except for old age.

I just can't hold interest. I think it's lack of recent practice, since I have no tevee and haven't gone to the movies in 25 years.

The sheeple play their pathetic music while they work. While I'm doing dishes or scrubbing floors, I have a Bluetooth headset on, and I'll have the computer playing a discussion video, say, Greg Hunter.

The video terminal will be off. I get 90 percent of the benefits through the ears and enjoy it (meaning I perceive it and have learned from it) many times more.

 

[Joe King]

While I'm doing dishes or scrubbing floors, I have a Bluetooth headset on, and I'll have the computer playing a discussion video, say, Greg Hunter.

That's exactly the type of thing I was referring to. Kills two birds with one stone.

 

[Casey Jones]

dealerships around here have already went to 'one price concept' or 'no haggle' or whatever else they want to call it

point is, the salesman is a order taker only and for paperwork completion,
they are not allowed to become great salesmen, maximizing profit and all that jazz

they have went to a plug and play salesman model, which then negates much of the need for a boots on the ground person

That's the model anyway.

I'd bought my truck out of Enterprise Rent-a-Car...because it was priced exactly as KBB listed, and was low mileage and not a four-door short-bed truck. What used to be standard pickups are now rare.

But there was ZERO negotiating on it. Here's the truck; that's the price; buy it or don't buy it.

CarMax is the same way. Buying or selling. I've been into their Spokane shop at different times, trying to do both. No budging.

An old-school used-car dealer down the street from me, actually gave me a better price to buy my high-value late-model car. About $3k better. And he did me no favors, since he sold it as soon as the payoff on the note cleared.

But it is what it is. BASIC skills, such as how to negotiate a sale price...that we all used to have, to a better or worse level...those are gone now. Enterprise RAC's sales office was filled with cubicles with twentysomethings. Many of them girls. It's just a job; a step up from flipping burgers. They have to know how to work through the paperwork, but negotiating? Value of a given product, and lowering profit, versus hanging on to it and selling it for a better price next week? That's strategy; and these kids don't know it and won't learn it.

 

[Scorpio]

there was some guy on cnbc this am, touting a book,
point is, they had this guy on because he was showing massive gains, so they were wondering how

he was stating it was about being risk aware rather than risk adverse

that the whole paradigm of 'diversifying' is looked at improperly, and guarantees mediocrity,
now of course, I have told you this time and again,

that to achieve real yield, you have to put a stake in the ground, or accept gains over years and years, absorbing the massive losses, then participating in the run ups.

now accept that I am paraphrasing the above a bit, but you get the drift

if you are going to spread your dough around, all with the idea of minimizing risk, you are also minimizing your gains
this guy stated he tries to manage the risk rather than being constantly trying to hide from it

then he went on to talk a bit about the current monetary situation and how with the amount of fiat floating around chasing yield, gave birth to the whole crypto movement. That the crypts would not exist if it wasn't for excessive trillions laying around. I disagree with that, but certainly can appreciate why he would claim it.

regardless, it was nice to hear someone finally state all that you have been told was bullshit. Dollar cost average, diversify, diversify, diversify, go hide in bonds when times get weird, etc. One way ticket to mediocre gains.

 

[Casey Jones]

How can you be "risk-aware" when the market is based, not on economic fundamentals, but on the caprices of regulators and Central Bankers? One person cannot plan around the impulses of another. Not when that other is a government official unchecked by laws or controls or even mores.

 

[davycoppitt]

Been wondering how to profit from the coming collapse of commercial real estate in large cities. Today I was at a sky scraper in Minneapolis working all day. Complete ghost town. I was getting the parking ramp ready for winter. Each level holds about 200-250 parking spots. Averaged about 7 cars in each level. Almost every suite I walked by was completely bare. It wasn't even as if they were coming back, completely empty spaces one right after another. Then I get to talking with the chiller guys. They found 40k worth of repairs that need to be done to the cooling system today. Thats just the tip of the ice burg at what these buildings cost to sit there weather they are full or not. Went down to the first level that usually would be completely packed with people going to lunch and sitting there were 12 people. One of the dozen food places was still open and they were pretty much selling hot dogs and pretzels. I keep hearing people saying they will just have to turn these buildings into residential. I couldn't imagine the cost or risk to do that. Who would want to live in a city with no jobs.

Anyway here is what the ghost town looked like. Easy day for me as there were nobody to bother me.

Whats going to happen to these large structures? Do they just rot? Survive on 20% capacity. The real trick would be to find what company is fully invested in these and has allot of leases coming due.

 

[Tbonz]

Been wondering how to profit from the coming collapse of commercial real estate in large cities. Today I was at a sky scraper in Minneapolis working all day. Complete ghost town. I was getting the parking ramp ready for winter. Each level holds about 200-250 parking spots. Averaged about 7 cars in each level. Almost every suite I walked by was completely bare. It wasn't even as if they were coming back, completely empty spaces one right after another. Then I get to talking with the chiller guys. They found 40k worth of repairs that need to be done to the cooling system today. Thats just the tip of the ice burg at what these buildings cost to sit there weather they are full or not. Went down to the first level that usually would be completely packed with people going to lunch and sitting there were 12 people. One of the dozen food places was still open and they were pretty much selling hot dogs and pretzels. I keep hearing people saying they will just have to turn these buildings into residential. I couldn't imagine the cost or risk to do that. Who would want to live in a city with no jobs.

Anyway here is what the ghost town looked like. Easy day for me as there were nobody to bother me.

Whats going to happen to these large structures? Do they just rot? Survive on 20% capacity. The real trick would be to find what company is fully invested in these and has allot of leases coming due.

View attachment 225008
View attachment 225009

Looking at the coloring scheme and not knowing where you were in MPLS, I would have guessed MOA. Downtown, I'd guess Norwest/Wells Fargo Building area.

My guess is they will fill back up in a year or so when all the god damned liberals finally get the heads out of their asses. If they don't remove their heads from their asses they will all suffocate hopefully.

 

[davycoppitt]

Looking at the coloring scheme and not knowing where you were in MPLS, I would have guessed MOA. Downtown, I'd guess Norwest/Wells Fargo Building area.

My guess is they will fill back up in a year or so when all the god damned liberals finally get the heads out of their asses. If they don't remove their heads from their asses they will all suffocate hopefully.

Yep exact area. Problem is I keep hearing they are not coming back. Work from home from here on out. Let’s say even 20-30% of those companies do that. I wonder how full a sky scraper has to be to break even. I know hotels are pretty high.

 

[Tbonz]

Yep exact area. Problem is I keep hearing they are not coming back. Work from home from here on out. Let’s say even 20-30% of those companies do that. I wonder how full a sky scraper has to be to break even. I know hotels are pretty high.

Minneapolis commercial real estate can run at 65% or so and survive. IF it dips below that, not so good.

My guess, is they will touch 65-70% but not below. Long term it will recover if the government doesn't institute Universal Basic Income.

 

[Casey Jones]

Been wondering how to profit from the coming collapse of commercial real estate in large cities. Today I was at a sky scraper in Minneapolis working all day. Complete ghost town. I was getting the parking ramp ready for winter. Each level holds about 200-250 parking spots. Averaged about 7 cars in each level. Almost every suite I walked by was completely bare. It wasn't even as if they were coming back, completely empty spaces one right after another. Then I get to talking with the chiller guys. They found 40k worth of repairs that need to be done to the cooling system today. Thats just the tip of the ice burg at what these buildings cost to sit there weather they are full or not. Went down to the first level that usually would be completely packed with people going to lunch and sitting there were 12 people. One of the dozen food places was still open and they were pretty much selling hot dogs and pretzels. I keep hearing people saying they will just have to turn these buildings into residential. I couldn't imagine the cost or risk to do that. Who would want to live in a city with no jobs.

Anyway here is what the ghost town looked like. Easy day for me as there were nobody to bother me.

Whats going to happen to these large structures? Do they just rot? Survive on 20% capacity. The real trick would be to find what company is fully invested in these and has allot of leases coming due.

View attachment 225008
View attachment 225009

They all must have moved to Montana.

Minnehaha license tags are very popular, here...and we got the traffic the twin schitties used to have.

 

[Casey Jones]

Looking at the coloring scheme and not knowing where you were in MPLS, I would have guessed MOA. Downtown, I'd guess Norwest/Wells Fargo Building area.

My guess is they will fill back up in a year or so when all the god damned liberals finally get the heads out of their asses. If they don't remove their heads from their asses they will all suffocate hopefully.

I think it's here to stay.

Who the hell wants to live in a city that is both, no fun, and now, not friendly or safe. Scandanavian Lutherans aren't typically the life of the party; and now, they've left the city to the Somalians. And Pantifa and Bwak oLives Mattah.

Stay there? WHY, FFS? They've LEFT. Minnehaha, both halves, are the New Detroit.

 

[Tbonz]

I think it's here to stay.

Who the hell wants to live in a city that is both, no fun, and now, not friendly or safe. Scandanavian Lutherans aren't typically the life of the party; and now, they've left the city to the Somalians. And Pantifa and Bwak oLives Mattah.

Stay there? WHY, FFS? They've LEFT. Minnehaha, both halves, are the New Detroit.

It's the god damned Scandinavian's that brought the Somalians to Minnesota, right along with the catholics. Look at St. Cloud, once the 3rd or 4 biggest metropolitan area in the state, it's a SHITHOLE now. Go down 28th Ave. S in Minneapolis around 3pm when they release kids from Roosevelt, if you didn't know better you'd think you were in Mogadishu.

You're right Casey, Minneapolis is a shit hole, and the people that brought this shit to Minneapolis should be forced to live with if forever.

Omar is the perfect representative for Minneapolis/Minnesota she's a terrorist pure and simple.

Anyone that wants to argue these points go visit Minneapolis, go into south Minneapolis, go past Bill St. Manes, or Fat Lorenzo's, or Matt's. Total shit hole.

 

[Scorpio]

if anyone is watching multiple markets,

it is pretty clear to see they are moving from one to the next,

lumber/grains/coffee/oils/natty/copper/etc

they blow one or more out, then move on to the next

eventually they will get around to gold and the doorstops,

just a question of when for me anyway, rather than if

I am biased, and am holding paper in miners

we should have started the seasonal for metals back in July, with a run into sept, then a slowdown, then a final run at year end for a couple of months

this year, it has been delayed for whatever reason, as instead of getting positive action from july on, it has been yet more poor activity in metals,

yet realistically, silver hasn't been back to revisit that 18 number since blowing thru it, and gold is holding higher numbers accordingly.

the paper metals have had the dogchit kicked out of them comparatively speaking

 

[savvydon]

they blow one or more out, then move on to the next

By this do you mean kick them lower or allow them to run? I'm trying to understand if you are making a case for the further collapse of the PM market or if you see it poised to rebound higher now?

 

[Scorpio]

near term, not sure if they take it lower,
damn sure don't want to see that,

just saying that eventually they will get around to the metal markets, just as they are with the others,
and by process of elimination, they have been thru a bunch of the others already

big dough is moving by waves into these markets, then leaving and on to the next target
so they won't be 'letting them run', as they will be the 'run'

JMO for sure

 

[chieftain]

I smell shenanigans in iron ore:

No clear end in sight for iron ore collapse as futures hit $US90​

The relentless pace of iron ore’s collapse has strategists at a loss as to when producers might see a reprieve as prices extended their fall below $US100 a tonne on Monday, inflicting further pain on the major miners and the national accounts.

Futures in Singapore hit a low of $US90 a tonne upon their return to trading for the October contract, tumbling 11.5 per cent from where they closed on Friday. The spot price dropped 4.9 per cent to $US101.95 a tonne, according to Fastmarkets MB, taking the commodity’s weekly loss to 21.4 per cent.

Longer-dated contracts were spared the carnage witnessed in the short-term market. March 2022 futures fell 1.6 per cent to $US96 a tonne on the SGX.

The swift fall in value by Australia’s number one export is poised to dent the nation’s fiscal position, with every $US10 decline in iron ore’s price equating to $6.5 billion in nominal GDP terms, according to Commonwealth Bank estimates. The Australian sharemarket was down 2.1 per cent by the early afternoon as BHP Group fell 4.5 per cent to $37.38, and Rio Tinto 4.6 per cent to $94.22. Fortescue declined 4.9 per cent to $14.52.
While accelerating steel production cuts in China were an initial trigger for the bulk commodity’s retreat from lofty levels, the momentum driving prices and stocks lower has intensified as panic sets in.

“The big issue now is confidence, so it’s very hard to know when the market might start to try and stabilise,” said co-head of mining research at UBS, Lachlan Shaw. “It’s fallen a long way, but I think the market wants and needs some certainty in terms of how, or if, the government intervenes in the unfolding Evergrande situation.”

China's Evergrande is on track to default on its debt.

Mr Shaw led the broker’s call last Friday to slash its iron ore price forecasts to $US89 a tonne next year, while downgrading Fortescue to a “sell” rating, which it also has on Rio Tinto and Brazilian miner Vale.

Junior miners suffered a swift sell-off last week, which also extended into Monday’s trading, led by Champion Iron which had plunged 14.5 per cent to $4.37 by lunchtime.

Steel production curbs across China have weighed on sentiment. Steel mills in Jiangsu, Shandong and Liaoning – the three largest steel-making provinces in China behind Hebei – have all launched output cuts since the start of September.

The south-western province of Yunnan, which produces around 2.3 per cent of the nation’s total crude steel, was the latest to be targeted last week with strategists anticipating more cuts in coming weeks.

“A few mill sources expected China’s steel output cuts to widen further in late-September or October, mainly as the overall cuts by mid-September have remained insufficient to keep the country’s 2021 crude steel output within 2020 levels,” said S&P Global Platts.

These are expected to come from eastern and southern China because provinces such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Yunnan, Guangxi and Guangdong are still lagging their reduction targets for energy consumption.

Homebuyer sentiment​

Concerns over energy usage have mounted in China as it enters a colder period as coal and gas shortages trigger a boom in prices. This coincides with efforts to reduce steel production amid a nationwide push to lower carbon emissions ahead of next year’s Winter Olympics.

For now, a mounting debt crisis involving property giant Evergrande has added thrust to plummeting steel demand and iron ore’s crash.
“What’s really new is the accelerating deterioration in China’s property market, with Evergrande’s liquidity issues clearly front and centre of that,” Mr Shaw said.

“But there’s also much broader issues in terms of homebuyer sentiment that is clearly weighing on the near-term prospects for new constructions starts.”

This will weigh on iron ore, given property makes up 35 to 40 per cent of China’s steel demand, according to Mr Shaw. This is set to take place against an oversupply of the commodity, with UBS expecting the physical iron ore market to quickly swing into surplus towards the end of this year.

$US90 iron ore sinks ASX with no sign of stability

The damage from iron ore’s correction extended into Monday’s trade as strategists noted the surprising speed at which the commodity is falling.

www.afr.com