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Restaurant stock

soupbone

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#1
Sit down restaurant stock prices have tanked. What are yall's thoughts on something like this? BB is the parent company for Outback Steakhouse, Carrabba's and a few others. Normally trades north of $25.

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Someone_else

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#2
I think...

In a few months when this scare has fizzled out, people will have extra $GOV$ in their pockets, and will be tired of their home cooking and drive-through junk. I am sure there will be big winners, but not sure how to pick them. Buy some of every player? That might be the safest, and most sure to get good returns, no matter who wins.
 

Mr Paradise

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#3
I’d go with TXRH and DRI before Outback BLMN) in my opinion.
I also like QSR and YUM.

Once the zombies are all dead and we can leave our homes moms across the country will not want to cook for a month.
 
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oldgaranddad

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#4
Do some research on your own. See which local chains are consistently busy for takeout in this quarantine market. I think as time goes by it will be apparent which chains are still profitable in the take-out only mode. A good indicator of survivability.

I'm already betting chains like Cheesecake Factory (and Grand Lux) who publicly stated that they will not make rent or pay rent, won't survive. Even if they do, the landlords will have a hard on for them and look to get them out of their properties. There are several others like them that I don't think will survive either

Zombie retailers like JC Penny and Sears I have no clue how they can come back from this environment. If they do, then you know all this corporate accounting is one big fixed Ponzi scheme.

A lot of local places aren't going to be able to weather the storm and won't be opening back up but on the bright side, there's plenty of talent available and opportunity to move into a cleared out playing field. Problem is, you need the money to float at least 9 months for staffing , training and building up the business.
 

Someone_else

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#5
Yeah, a steakhouse chain might get hurt if their supply gets expensive. Same with Red Lobster.

Olive Garden should have good margins and are not tied to a specialty menu. The one closest to me was pretty much packed full from the day they opened.
 

MrLucky

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#6
MCD & KO or PEP. Burgers & coke man. Perfect for takeout.
 
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soupbone

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#7
Yeah, a steakhouse chain might get hurt if their supply gets expensive.
This is the real clincher here. I bet beef is going to be through the freakin roof once the smoke clears. Will people even be able to afford Outback?
 

EO 11110

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#8
building a basket of restaurant stocks - spreading my bets across those that i think can help achieve dividend income goal

top names -- syy, txrh, cbrl
also -- wen, dnkn, jack
 

tigerwillow1

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#10
I would guess that going forward people will be avoiding cruises and a couple of generations will have to die off before the industry might recover. News today is reporting that 2 ships just docked in Ft. Lauderdale with 2 dead on each one. I think people will remember the possibility of being trapped on a death cruise.
 

oldgaranddad

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#11
Then again, forget restaurants and invest in divorce law firms. I bet you after this quarantine they’ll be doing a bang up business.
 

Someone_else

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#12
I would guess that going forward people will be avoiding cruises
I was pretty neutral about cruises to start. Then I heard that a cruise was just a useless voyage with lots of eating and paying tips to the crew. Those THREE points kills it for me. The trip is useless. The eating is useless. The tips are a dealbreaker. My wife has been a waitress, and she tells me about tips. But I still say that tips are WRONG! They are an abomination. WRONG! Sorry, dear.
 

Mr Paradise

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#13
building a basket of restaurant stocks - spreading my bets across those that i think can help achieve dividend income goal

top names -- syy, txrh, cbrl
also -- wen, dnkn, jack
CBRL looks so appealing at these levels. If you wanna play the restaurant rebound game that would be my first round draft pick. I would then draft DRI in the second round.
 

EO 11110

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#14
only a few public companies dominate - that's a positive

the horror stories of the covid -- that's a negative

i see carnival as a home run or strikeout - no singles or doubles. not a bad bet for risky players.
 

gnome

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#15
I'd pass on dine-in for at least until summer.
 

EO 11110

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#16
I'd pass on dine-in for at least until summer.
totally agree - but the market looks forward.....so bad summer is priced in? a lot of the better restaurant stocks are down by more than half
 

gnome

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#17
totally agree - but the market looks forward.....so bad summer is priced in? a lot of the better restaurant stocks are down by more than half
I've got no crystal ball, I just think the downside risk of bankruptcies are not worth it at this time.
Even after lockdowns are lifted, I think consumer behavior is going to be significantly shifted towards dine at home, both out of fear of the virus and nobody having money to dine out.

But my bias is I'm bearish on the whole scenario.
I think real estate, finance, retail and restaurants have further to fall.
Saving grace in all of this is low energy prices, which will help the economy recover.

I could be wrong.
 

Thecrensh

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#18
I've got no crystal ball, I just think the downside risk of bankruptcies are not worth it at this time.
Even after lockdowns are lifted, I think consumer behavior is going to be significantly shifted towards dine at home, both out of fear of the virus and nobody having money to dine out.

But my bias is I'm bearish on the whole scenario.
I think real estate, finance, retail and restaurants have further to fall.
Saving grace in all of this is low energy prices, which will help the economy recover.

I could be wrong.

I'm with you; there are going to be a lot of layoffs without a job on the other side IMHO, which will lead to the second bubble popping in about 6 months...and more layoffs.
 

EO 11110

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#20
damn.....the things are up like a rocket today. should've bought friday afternoon
 

Mr Paradise

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#21
It’s early in the week yet. I wouldn’t be shocked if we give it all back tomorrow.