• Same story, different day...........year ie more of the same fiat floods the world
  • There are no markets
  • "Spreading the ideas of freedom loving people on matters regarding high finance, politics, constructionist Constitution, and mental masturbation of all types"

Seattle’s shortage of homes for sale foments disruptive bidding wars

Scorpio

Скорпион
Founding Member
Board Elder
Site Mgr
Sr Site Supporter
Joined
Mar 25, 2010
Messages
24,566
Likes
27,368
#1
Seattle’s shortage of homes for sale foments disruptive bidding wars
By Sam DeBord
Published: Mar 8, 2017 2:10 p.m. ET







New residential construction in Seattle by Jolly Homes Inc.
The headlines read "Seattle's real estate market is hot!" Under that glossy surface, Seattle real estate's inventory dearth is a growing, unruly mess.

Home prices in King County rose 12% in February, but that's no longer an attention-grabber. They rose 18% in the same period one year before.


Check out more Location Scouts reports on housing-market conditions across the U.S.

Inventory is at just 1.1 months. The number of available homes for sale dropped 21% in one year. These crisis-level numbers should be astonishing, but they've begun to seem unremarkable. After all, inventory dropped 26% in 2015, 17% in 2014 and 10% in 2013.

The shock has worn off. We've been inundated with double-digit noise for so long in the Seattle real estate market that we've almost become numb to it. While that's understandable, it's also problematic.

King County is issuing 200 new driver's licenses every day to people moving in from out-of-state. That doesn't include in-state migration and in-county natural population growth. Meanwhile, the county is only issuing building permits for 27 new housing units per day.

The diverging trend lines of people and homes get further apart by the day, month and year. Prices rise swiftly.




Residents get squeezed. They "drive to qualify". They live further out, commute longer distances, create more traffic gridlock, spend more on transportation, have less time to spend with their families and experience a diminished quality of life.

There's no risky financing housing bubble to blame like there was a decade ago. Employment and in-migration in King County is forecast to rise exponentially in the coming years. These are people with real jobs, verified income and real down payments. There just aren't enough homes, so prices continue to soar.

Consumers are often surprised to hear that Realtors aren't always excited about skyrocketing prices. We've gone so far as to create a media blitz and conversation starters about how we can add balance to our market at HousingTranslator.com. You'll see a push for smart housing policy measures on the web, radio, even on the side of buses. Important discussions about creating more housing options in the greater Seattle area aren't being had often enough and we intend to change that.

We work and live in the same neighborhoods as our clients. Our neighbors and customers feel the same strain on their housing options, commute times and lifestyles. Higher prices due to artificially constrained supply aren't good for any of us.

As organized real estate groups push for flexibility for greater housing development, we're often told by those who influence public policy that "We can't just build our way out of this," or "Supply and demand don't apply to this issue."

The laws of economics are not optional. The population is growing, and demand for housing must be met. Let's look at the region's dire housing situation as if it were a different necessary amenity for our residents.

What if the region's garbage collection services were already maxed out by its current residents? What if, despite population growth, we gave up on building out our waste management services to support our new residents? If some of our residents don't like the look of more garbage trucks, can we simply deny economics and ignore our population's growth?

If we try, there's a day when the garbage service just can't finish picking up the growing amount of waste that the population is creating. The trucks leave the last 1% of garbage on the sidewalks. They won't catch up the next week, either. We'll fall another 1% behind. After just one year, garbage trucks would be leaving more trash on the sidewalks than they'd be picking up. The unmet need for services would continue to become more extreme as the population expands and services, in relative measurement, shrink.

That's been the story of Seattle's compounding housing woes, and we're many years into the process. We can't clean up today's problems because we're still not providing enough housing options to service the population growth from years past.

If the analogy sounds a bit hyperbolic, that's the intent. Something has to cut through the blasé coverage of Seattle's real estate outlook.

Bidding wars are the rule. Attorneys and software engineers can't find homes to buy. That's not tugging at anyone's heartstrings.

Higher income residents eventually resign themselves to outbid someone on lower-priced homes, though. These folks force the middle class to find other options — teachers, small business owners, etc. There's nothing left for middle-class buyers to do but drop down a price category and outbid working-class home buyers. There's no denying the linkage. We see it every day in the business. Buyers keep bumping each other down, but there's nothing left at the bottom.

Every new housing unit, high-priced or low, creates more breathing room in the housing ladder. It's an undeniable domino effect. Thoughtful concern for low-income residents necessarily requires a desire to create more housing units across the entire spectrum of pricing.

The repetitive stories about rising prices in Seattle may lull some to sleep, but the strain on the region due to lack of housing development is snowballing. Affordability of homes at all income levels needs to be addressed if we want to keep our businesses happy, our residents employed and housed, and our transportation systems working efficiently. More people plus more jobs equals more housing units needed. There's no back-door formula to change this equation.

We can build our way out of this problem. We can also do it intelligently, by preserving legacy neighborhoods and increasing density in urban centers near transit hubs. Change is inevitable. Political myopia and willful ignorance will not improve the path that the Seattle region's housing stock is headed down.

We'll be at least 10,000 units further behind next year. There's no time for nonchalance in light of our repetitively gaudy housing numbers. From a long-term perspective, they're downright scary.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/se...le-foments-disruptive-bidding-wars-2017-03-08
 

Montecristo

Silver Member
Silver Miner
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
764
Likes
647
Location
SE Michigan
#2
She outlines the problem but doesn't offer a solution, so I will.

Get governments greedy paws out of the residential construction business. It's near impossible for a residential construction company to produce low income housing by the time govt gets their cut of permits, licenses, unnecessary code restrictions and inspections. One estimate has low end home prices being inflated by almost 20% through govt interference not only in direct costs as I just described but in wasted time waiting for said inspectors and red tape bureaucrats to perform their self appointed Napoleonic duties.

This lack of supply comes from somewhere. As usual it can be traced back to govt intervention, because if there was a profit to be made building lower end housing someone would be building them.
 
Last edited:

the_shootist

The war is here on our doorstep!
Midas Member
Sr Site Supporter
Joined
May 31, 2015
Messages
19,813
Likes
20,861
Location
Somewhere out there!
#3
She outlines the problem but doesn't offer a solution, so I will.

Get governments greedy paws out of the residential construction business. It's near impossible for a residential construction company to produce low income housing by the time govt gets their cut of permits, licenses, unnecessary code restrictions and inspections. One estimate has low end home prices being inflated by almost 20% through govt interference not only in direct costs as I just described but in wasted time waiting for said inspectors and red tape bearocrats to perform their self appointed napolianic duties.

This lack of supply comes from somewhere. As usual it can be traced back to govt intervention, because if there was a profit to be made building lower end housing someone would be building them.
Government is a cancer with no cure
 

southfork

Site Supporter
Site Supporter
Mother Lode
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
14,552
Likes
12,769
#4
Couldnt pay me to live in that or anywhere on the West Coast till they clean out the immigrant loving dems
 

Scorpio

Скорпион
Founding Member
Board Elder
Site Mgr
Sr Site Supporter
Joined
Mar 25, 2010
Messages
24,566
Likes
27,368
#5
Monte,

Add to your comments the .gov restricting lending across the board after they all gorged on amerikans.

That restriction of credit and flow disrupted the market big time. We are currently seeing the ramifications of that across the country.

The demand was pent up, but the funding wasn't there or avail to keep the flow consistent.

Now what we have is massive inflation in everything housing. Labor, land, products, all of it.
 

southfork

Site Supporter
Site Supporter
Mother Lode
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
14,552
Likes
12,769
#6
A large part of being able to buy a home in some states is the taxes, was looking at where I lived years ago in Bordentown NJ, taxes and insurance cost more per month than the mortgage on many homes , couldnt afford to buy the house I used to live in today.
 

GOLDBRIX

God,Donald Trump,most in GIM2 I Trust. OTHERS-meh
Platinum Bling
Site Supporter ++
Joined
Apr 4, 2010
Messages
6,390
Likes
6,538
#7
Couldnt pay me to live in that or anywhere on the West Coast till they clean out the immigrant loving dems
And there-in lies the ANSWER: DEPLORABLES - Put your homes up for sale and move somewhere safer ( away from the LEFT Coast PROGs )with the higher than normal profits.
 

nickndfl

Midas Member
Midas Member
Sr Site Supporter
Joined
Jan 7, 2011
Messages
12,264
Likes
10,340
Location
Florida
#8
The city or county can enact a building moratorium or build more multi-family units. Then there is a pseudo moratorium by inflating impact fees on new construction. The problem sounds like no more empty land in the city. Same thing in Miami/Ft. Lauderdale/West Palm Beach.
 

sandblaster

Silver Member
Silver Miner
Site Supporter ++
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
129
Likes
101
Location
PNW
#9
And there-in lies the ANSWER: DEPLORABLES - Put your homes up for sale and move somewhere safer ( away from the LEFT Coast PROGs )with the higher than normal profits.
I was here first. They can move out.
 
Last edited:

Zed

Size doesn't count!
Midas Member
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
11,494
Likes
8,864
Location
Springfield
#10
Government = Artificial market constraint.

Always adds danger to a market in a big ticket item like a house. Prices will go too far north, then when the market clears they will go too far south... damaging the new entrants. It adds volatility like undue leverage does.
 

GOLDBRIX

God,Donald Trump,most in GIM2 I Trust. OTHERS-meh
Platinum Bling
Site Supporter ++
Joined
Apr 4, 2010
Messages
6,390
Likes
6,538
#11
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Most of South Florida went through this if not still going through it.
 
Joined
Feb 22, 2017
Messages
27
Likes
24
#13
From what I've been reading,these prices may soon collapse. The government is once again pushing banks to loan to under qualified house hunters & once again the banks are going along with it.
 

ttazzman

Midas Member
Midas Member
Site Supporter ++
Joined
Apr 2, 2010
Messages
4,818
Likes
4,251
Location
mid-usa
#14
my son took a job transfer out to seattle a couple of wks ago......he hasnt found a place yet and is living out of a hotel.......