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Silver next upswing

lightcycler

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Going to step out with another graph..EUR/USD. It looks like a large contracting triangle. Wave D up now to the 1.45 area with PM's rising of course. A Wave E down after that and of course correction in PM's then a huge run up in the EUR with USD crashing driving PM's to da moon alice :) Note the timeframes on the graph. This will play out over the next several years

eur usd.jpg
 

d-lod

dawn
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jelly this is for you................


http://www.kitco.com/ind/Maund/20120402.html



On its 15-month chart we can see that although silver did not succeed in breaking out of its downtrend on the rally in February, which is thus still in force, its action at that time was nevertheless bullish, as it climbed well above its highs of last November, which is taken to signify a potential change of trend from down to neutral, so that the pattern that has formed from the September panic lows to the present looks very much like a Head-and-Shoulders bottom, with the price having dropped down in March to form the Right Shoulder low of the pattern. Thus it is obvious that if this interpretation is correct we are at a highly advantageous entry point here from a price/time perspective, as the price is likely to advance soon from here to complete the Right Shoulder of the pattern, before breaking out upside from it to embark on the next major upleg, as indicated on the chart.




jelly all your sleepless nights will be rewarded, hence forth..............



Silver is marking out a Head-and-Shoulders pattern that parallels the one forming in gold, but whereas the one in gold is classified as a Head-and-Shoulders continuation pattern, the one in silver is classified as a Head-and-Shoulders bottom. The reason for this difference is that the pattern in gold has formed not very far beneath the highs, and thus comparatively does not have much of a loss to reverse, whereas the pattern in silver has got quite a lot to reverse, as can be seen by comparing the 15-month chart for silver shown here with the 1-year charts for gold presented in the Gold Market update.
 

southfork

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Kind of hard for me to put faith in charts when they sell 600 million ounces of paper in an hour, while charts can be indicative of an up or down direction they are best left to un manipulated stocks.
 

d-lod

dawn
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Kind of hard for me to put faith in charts when they sell 600 million ounces of paper in an hour, while charts can be indicative of an up or down direction they are best left to un manipulated stocks.
are you like me want the gut wrenching Niagara action. I feel that everyone has a personality and so has silver, it has nerve breaking habit of falling knief and this time it has not yet shown its true character.
 

lightcycler

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Kind of hard for me to put faith in charts when they sell 600 million ounces of paper in an hour, while charts can be indicative of an up or down direction they are best left to un manipulated stocks.
Your saying stocks are unmanupulated? Heard of the PPT? Computer trading programs?
 

hoarder

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Helloooooooooooooooooooo

Everything that is traded has manipulation value.
Degree of manipulation and reason for it irrelevant?

Quantity and proportion don't matter in technical analysis.
 

lightcycler

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Degree of manipulation and reason for it irrelevant?

Quantity and proportion don't matter in technical analysis.
Ok I'm going to say this one time! Do you not think the manipulators have the best technical analyst money can buy? If they are wanting to move a market they are not going to go against the stream. If they are wanting to crush it...........crush it when its overbought........not when its oversold. Everytime there is a normal correction in the market is not manipulation.

Not sure why I'm arguing the point here. I know what I know. I appreciate Dlod's and others knowledge regarding tech analysis. Stay tuned. More to come.
 

d-lod

dawn
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33.08, 33.18 and 33.28 had been three top that silver has reverted back. As the formation is on daily chart, it could be consider as breath taking................view.

Triple tops is a pattern that is sure sign of a reversal, but this one is in mid correction of a minute wave. MACD IS FLATTENED.
 

d-lod

dawn
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The monthly chart is showing weakness, momentum 14 is below previous level when silver was 26 (twice) while rsi is just at the same level. Monthly chart is a bit of concern otherwise daily and weekly are positive.
 

d-lod

dawn
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Jelly

In EW, it always the first wave that decide the course of action. If you refer my previous wave count suggested that, as ALF Field stated that correction is over in silver than
  • this rise from 26 - 37 is first minute wave of 3rd of III wave.

And its correction has to go through routine abc correction, so

1. first corrective wave a has descended from 37ish to 31 ish


now for wave b it has to rise for small amount that was

2. 33 and again has to give market one last chance to climb in the wagon.

so it could be that part of first minute wave or else in worst case scenario we are still in final correction and in that case truly be prepared with gut wrenching downfall.

I have less trust in silver's correction stuff.


SCENARIO A - OPTIMISTIC

SILVER has completed 61.8% fibo of first minor wave i from 26 - 37 at 30.50, if it break that level than may travel up-to 28.60 to next correction level...............but beyond that it fail the count of up-move.


SCENARIO B - PESSIMISTIC

SILVER has not yet completed its correction and will fiercely give deeper short term correction to deeper level than 26.
 

lightcycler

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SCENARIO A - OPTIMISTIC

SILVER has completed 61.8% fibo of first minor wave i from 26 - 37 at 30.50, if it break that level than may travel up-to 28.60 to next correction level...............but beyond that it fail the count of up-move.


SCENARIO B - PESSIMISTIC

SILVER has not yet completed its correction and will fiercely give deeper short term correction to deeper level than 26.
I'm living in the optimistic camp at the moment. BUt as allways price action will be the truth. I bought some paper this morning. If 0.618 doesnt hold I"m back out.
 

d-lod

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Status update. If as I believe this is a wave 1 of the next big wave up. We are approaching the 0.618 retracement at 30.5. 0.618 is most common retracement for a wave 1. If it bounces off of the 0.618 and we get momentum in the upward direction it will be very bullish. More to come and more to watch to determine the outcome. I have been wrong once or twice in my analysis. :)

View attachment 16510










Has reached 30.50 and this is just the beginning of week
 

d-lod

dawn
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http://www.kitco.com/ind/Maund/20120423A.html



OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO

The 2-year chart for silver still looks moderately positive with a large Head-and-Shoulders bottom looking like it has formed following the descent from the peak last September. Support is close at hand with the price looking like it is now marking out the Right Shoulder low - if it is we are clearly at a good entry point here. In contrast to gold, silver's moving averages are in bearish alignment as a result of its having fallen much more in percentage terms from its highs. The MACD indicator shows silver to be a little oversold.


PESSIMIST


The more pessimistic scenario is that the apparent Head-and-Shoulders bottom is a phoney and that silver will go on to break below the 2 support levels shown and head towards the lower boundary of the downtrend in force from last April - May, and possibly breach the lower boundary of the channel. This is a development that we can expect to ensue if the dollar index breaks out above 80 to embark on another substantial upleg. The MACD indicator shown at the bottom of the chart reveals a momentum breakdown that increases the risk of such a move.
The 6-month chart for silver shows that it has found support at and above $31 in recent weeks, but it has been put under increasing pressure from the falling downtrend line shown that has forced this morning's breakdown, although the breakdown is as yet not decisive and the immediate outlook will depend on how silver closes today. The Head-and-Shoulders bottom pattern will remain a viable scenario even if it drops down to its Left Shoulder lows shown on the 2-year chart which occurred early last October at about $28.50, but if it continues below that it will spoil the pattern.

Level of 28.60.....is still important to look forward
 

d-lod

dawn
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http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_12/mladjenovic042512.html

What will silver's price look like a year from now…or 29 months from now? I am on record as forecasting that silver will hit $100 during 2012-2013. If silver were to mirror its percentage run from 2008-2011, then you are talking about silver's price being in the general vicinity of $142. There are some that offer compelling views that silver could easily exceed $200 in the same general time frame.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_12/bogner042612.html

The (below) silver price started to fluctuate within a (green) upward-trendchannel in 1997. In late 2010, the resistive uppermost (green) trendline was broken at approx. $23, whereafter a breakout took the price to the $50 level. The subsequent pullback has the goal of testing and potentially confirming this (formerly resistive) trendline (as new support) - in order for a new and longer-termed upward-trend to begin thereafter (if successful). Thus, a major sell-signal is not given until breaching this trendline currently at approx. $27.50. Thus, a buy-signal is active above this support, whereas a major buy-signal is generated when rising above the red and violet resistances currently at $35 and $45.


The below chart shows the beginning of the last silver bull (1970-1975) and there may be a similar pattern in play when comparing with the above price actions of the beginning of the current bull (since 1997). The silver price nearly doubled between 1974 and August 1979, before rising sharply from $10 to $50 within the following 5 months. Silver rose 6.65-fold (13.3/2) from $6.45 in February 1974 to a monthly average of $43 in January 1980. Thus, if you take the 2011 high of $50 and multiply with 6.65, you get silver at $333 (as we have seen above, this can translate into gold trading at $5,000 with a gold/silver ratio of 15; or gold at $33,300 with a ratio of 100).

The CPI basket has been changed in a way that does not seem to represent real inflation anymore. An increasing number of market participants estimate real inflation higher than the official 2-3% p.A. (CPI). The SGS (Shadow Government Statistics) index is felt to better reflect real inflation, whereas it uses the same definition/calculation of inflation as official government agencies used in 1980. Currently, the annual SGS inflation rate stands at 6% p.A. If we now adjust the dollar by SGS-inflation (instead of CPI) and look back at "the old all-time high" of the last bull cycle in January 1980, we note the "SGS real" silver price traded at almost $500 (in today's dollar terms, whereas these terms are defined by an inflation measure that was used in 1980 and not today). This translates into: if I wanted to sell silver today at the same price level as in January 1980 considering todays purchasing power of the dollar, silver would need to trade at around $500 today. Or the other way around: if I bought silver at the peak of the last bull market, its price must really/today trade at around $500 to get me out without a real/net loss.









Be proud owner of everything that's physical
 

REO 54

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"Be proud owner of everything that's physical" d-lod

There it is! No matter what,own something that is REAL and has intrinsic VALUE! :D
 
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d-lod

dawn
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"Be proud owner of everything that's physical" d-lod

There it is! No matter what,,own somthing that is REAL and has intrinsic VALUE! :D



At what ever price you have bought physical, you are going to be rewarded by 3 to five times, so why loose sleep.
The long legged candle on weekly chart is suggesting up-move and if that is so than we are in 3rd of THIRD.

 

d-lod

dawn
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At what ever price you have bought physical, you are going to be rewarded by 3 to five times, so why loose sleep.
The long legged candle on weekly chart is suggesting up-move and if that is so than we are in 3rd of THIRD.

The long legged candle is floating on water with more down scope.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_12/field042912.html



If the social unrest gets to be excessive, these countries may consider another option to get rid of their debt. It is an option that is being ignored because of the drastic consequences for the EU and the Euro if this course of action was adopted. This option is to "wipe the slate clean" by declaring bankruptcy, defaulting on their debts and starting afresh with a new currency of their own. The new currency will quickly depreciate to the point where their competitive position will become attractive. With no debt to service and with a competitive economy, the country could adopt disciplined monetary and fiscal policies, hopefully followed by economic growth.
 

REO 54

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"Debt can only be repaid out of budget surpluses which can only be achieved by economic growth. That is unlikely to happen under current circumstances. These countries cannot grow without an improvement in their competitive positions with their northern neighbors. While they are locked into the Euro, they cannot achieve this by a devaluation of their currencies" -Alf Field

It's not a matter of if.....but when....
 

d-lod

dawn
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Right on lhslancers3270

It is 22.76 to be precise and near to tn wave I level of 21.34 march 2008. Wave IV has its rightful bottom at the top of wave I.


but puru has different opinion

http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1305259185.php
What's next?

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_12/lundeen050612.html

Well, during precious metals' bull markets, gold is usually the main topic of discussion, but historically silver has been the real money maker as it's the "poor-man's-gold." Today, many retail investors see $1,600 plus gold as simply unaffordable. However, for the price of an ounce of gold, precious metal investors today can purchase a hefty 53 ounces, or more than three pounds of silver. Emotionally, for most people of modest means, spending $1600 to invest in three pounds of silver rather than a single ounce of gold, is much more satisfying. And whether you are rich or poor, buying three pounds of silver today instead of an ounce of gold is the smart move. Historically, as precious metal bull markets progress, the SGR is forced down as swelling demand for silver from retail investors drives silver prices upward towards the price of gold, providing silver investors with a leveraged investment during a bull market in gold.
During bear markets in precious metals, silver becomes a toxic asset as was the case from December 1979 - February 1991 (see table below). Silver declined by 89% as gold lost only 33%. That's a huge difference! But during bull markets, this leverage works to the advantage of silver investors, as silver outperforms gold by a large margin. With the current SGR now significantly above 40, we are still in the early stages of a bull market in gold and silver. And with the SGR currently at 54 at the time of this writing, silver investors have plenty of leverage in the SGR to allow their investments in silver to outperform gold by 300% to 500% in the years to come.

In August 1993, the Dow Jones bull had not yet increased by a factor of 5 from its start in August of 1982, yet no one in the financial media spoke ill of the bull market in stocks. And unlike our current bull market in gold and silver, eleven years after the start of the bull market in stocks, the investing public fully accepted that stocks were going higher, and kept sending more and more money to Wall Street to finance their retirements. But even though gold and silver have outperformed the 1982-1993 Dow Jones and the S&P500 by a sizeable margin for the past eleven years, the public has yet to take advantage of the powerful bull market in gold and silver. This, too, is another sign that we are still in the early stages of gold and silver's bull market, and that the largest profits are still ahead of us. Now is a time to buy, not sell the old monetary metals.
 

REO 54

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"Now is a time to buy, not sell the old monetary metals. "

I second that. The old sayings don't apply this go-around I think."sell in May and go away".....etc.I don't know if we are on a bottom yet,but it's
still affordable to keep stackin'. :D
 

d-lod

dawn
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"Now is a time to buy, not sell the old monetary metals. "

I second that. The old sayings don't apply this go-around I think."sell in May and go away".....etc.I don't know if we are on a bottom yet,but it's
still affordable to keep stackin'. :D
Thanks REO 54

Its about ratio of win to loose $ 8 to loose(at the most) and $ 120 to win at the price of $30.


For the love of GSR..............

http://www.kitco.com/ind/RichardBaker/20120507.html

The bullish compression of the late-2011 GSR (gray triangles) to present levels (2012 yellow diamonds) has reversed with the 3-month moving average (gray line) pulling away from the ratio norm of 51 (dotted line) with positive slope (orange arrow) - a rising ratio denotes silver losing price strength relative to gold. This analysis uses Nov. 26, 2010 to define the norm because that date marked a period when not only gold-to-silver but gold-to-copper and –oil ratios returned to stable near historical averages after the extreme volatility of the 2008-2009 financial crisis.

To understand the white metal reversal it is instructive to look at the close on April 20. On that Friday, the GSR settled at 51.9; a 10% compression from the bearish 57.8 at the close of last year. The GSR had trended up on a day-to-day basis from the Feb. 29 low of 48.3 and was converging on the norm and three-month average. When the daily ratio, moving average and norm converge with a high degree of ratio stability, gold and silver prices are considered at equilibrium.

Commodity Ratio Stability© (CRS©) analysis is a valuable tool to gauge silver performance relative to gold. CRS can determine if the above condition for price equilibrium was satisfied April 20. Figure 2 is a plot of one- and three-month GSR stability from early-September of last year to Friday’s close:
 

Silver Buck

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"Be proud owner of everything that's physical" d-lod

There it is! No matter what,own something that is REAL and has intrinsic VALUE! :D
This is why I own my own business. What I have invested in I can cast my gaze about me and see my product and my equipment around me. I lease a damn good size building and I am proud to have my name on the front.

It's a shame I don't make nearly as much money working for myself as I could for someone else, but I have that peace of mind and sense of self-worth that cannot be measured in fiat.
 

daozen

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This is why I own my own business. What I have invested in I can cast my gaze about me and see my product and my equipment around me. I lease a damn good size building and I am proud to have my name on the front.

It's a shame I don't make nearly as much money working for myself as I could for someone else, but I have that peace of mind and sense of self-worth that cannot be measured in fiat.
whats your biz? if u dont mind me asking...
 

d-lod

dawn
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It look nasty the inability of crossing 31 three times has created a doomed house for short term.................
 

Silver Buck

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whats your biz? if u dont mind me asking...
Consumer electronics sale and service (with an emphasis on service).

Been doing electronics for over 3 decades, but the demand for service has been diminishing (the 'better to upgrade than repair' mantra is killing me...).

What has been great of late is that my customers buy equipment and pay me to learn all of the 'in's and out's' and then teach them how to effectively use it (Home Patrol scanner for one, an old Yaesu 757 for another).

I absolutely love what I do.

Now, to find some wealthy Cougar to support me...
 

daozen

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Consumer electronics sale and service (with an emphasis on service).

Been doing electronics for over 3 decades, but the demand for service has been diminishing (the 'better to upgrade than repair' mantra is killing me...).

What has been great of late is that my customers buy equipment and pay me to learn all of the 'in's and out's' and then teach them how to effectively use it (Home Patrol scanner for one, an old Yaesu 757 for another).

I absolutely love what I do.

Now, to find some wealthy Cougar to support me...
Well the better upgrade than repair mantra will run out of steam along fiat, something tells me.... good luck with the cougar! ;)
 

d-lod

dawn
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