Silver next upswing

[Jodster]

I know people will throw rotten tomatoes at me for even mentining this, but what is the probability of retracing back to the $26.00 level?
I sure could use one last buying opportunity but spot in the 30 dollar range doesn't quite do it for me. should I hold my dry powder and wait? Or has silver forever left the $20 ranges?

 

[Godswill]

IMO, there could be a flash crash that brings silver back down into the $20's but there may not be much physical available.

 

[hoarder]

IMO, there could be a flash crash that brings PAPER silver down to ZERO but there may not be much physical available.

Fixed it for ya!

 

[Silver Art]

IMO, there could be a flash crash that brings silver back down into the $20's but there may not be much physical available.

.......or it is possible that it could still be available at a "flash crash" sale of the $20's (mid $20's for example) but at a very high premium since a LCS is not going to take a loss of that amount with spot dropping that quickly. I suspect that if a silver "flash crash" of the $20's (mid $20's for example) did happen and a person was quick enough to act on it, then I suspect that dealers would just withhold inventory by taking it out of the display case and putting it away in the safe until the spot price recovers and the buyer who was quick on the "buying" trigger finger will end up "shooting blanks" and getting no physical silver at the "flash crash" sale.

 

[d-lod]

.......or it is possible that it could still be available at a "flash crash" sale of the $20's (mid $20's for example) but at a very high premium since a LCS is not going to take a loss of that amount with spot dropping that quickly. I suspect that if a silver "flash crash" of the $20's (mid $20's for example) did happen and a person was quick enough to act on it, then I suspect that dealers would just withhold inventory by taking it out of the display case and putting it away in the safe until the spot price recovers and the buyer who was quick on the "buying" trigger finger will end up "shooting blanks" and getting no physical silver at the "flash crash" sale.

If that happens than we would be most fortunate, but on the weekly chart all three of $26 prints has shown progressive MACD, so we are witnessing one of the last reaction.

 

[rodzm]

.......or it is possible that it could still be available at a "flash crash" sale of the $20's (mid $20's for example) but at a very high premium since a LCS is not going to take a loss of that amount with spot dropping that quickly. I suspect that if a silver "flash crash" of the $20's (mid $20's for example) did happen and a person was quick enough to act on it, then I suspect that dealers would just withhold inventory by taking it out of the display case and putting it away in the safe until the spot price recovers and the buyer who was quick on the "buying" trigger finger will end up "shooting blanks" and getting no physical silver at the "flash crash" sale.

Sept 2011 there was a flash crash...14% drop and online dealers didnt withhold inventory. I got lucky because I made one of my biggest single purchases that day when the crash happened. Provident was closed and it was like 1 AM EST when it all happened. I doubt anyone was up at that time over at Provident to withhold inventory. They may have done so later on but I bought before they changed anything

 

[Tinbox]

I know people will throw rotten tomatoes at me for even mentining this, but what is the probability of retracing back to the $26.00 level?
I sure could use one last buying opportunity but spot in the 30 dollar range doesn't quite do it for me. should I hold my dry powder and wait? Or has silver forever left the $20 ranges?

I wouldn't count on it but ya never know. Once the debt ceiling stuff gets started I feel its likely up up and away for metals. This could be the last time we see $30 and below. Although I doubt we will go under $28.50 or so as thats the long term support level. (it was around $26 the previous times silver tested $26 but is higher now)

That's just my guess though.

 

[Silver Art]

Sept 2011 there was a flash crash...14% drop and online dealers didnt withhold inventory. I got lucky because I made one of my biggest single purchases that day when the crash happened. Provident was closed and it was like 1 AM EST when it all happened. I doubt anyone was up at that time over at Provident to withhold inventory. They may have done so later on but I bought before they changed anything

On the post that you quoted me on, I was basing that on my personal observation and experience at a coin show in Alabama that I went on that Saturday after the "flash crash" in late Sept. 2011. I cannot speak for the major online bullion dealers since I have not bought anything from them in a long while. I was referring to some of the local dealers and the ones that were at the coin show that I went to that Saturday after the week of the "flash crash" that you are referring to" in Sept. 2011. The dealers at that coin show at that time did withhold inventory based on what I heard. The ones that did not withhold were selling at higher than normal premiums over spot. BTW I am not talking about just silver art bars, I am talking about all other types of .999 silver and SAE's as well as other gov't minted bullion. The major online dealers can probably take a loss but that does not mean that a local dealer cannot take such as loss especially if those local dealer are not able to "hedge" their inventory. I suspected that the local dealers either 1.) withheld inventory to wait for spot to recover or 2.) the local dealers that did not withhold inventory sold it to buyers but at a higher premium over spot. Just my take on this during that "flash crash" in late Sept. 2011.

 

[Silver Art]

I wouldn't count on it but ya never know. Once the debt ceiling stuff gets started I feel its likely up up and away for metals. This could be the last time we see $30 and below. Although I doubt we will go under $28.50 or so as thats the long term support level. (it was around $26 the previous times silver tested $26 but is higher now)

That's just my guess though.

I think that we could see sub-$30 silver as soon as this upcoming week and I also think that we could retest the $26 support level before this year is over. Maybe sometime next month for a possible $26 retest. I am just making a wild guess on the timing on when all of this could happen. We will have to see how this plays out.

 

[d-lod]

I think that we could see sub-$30 silver as soon as this upcoming week and I also think that we could retest the $26 support level before this year is over. Maybe sometime next month for a possible $26 retest. I am just making a wild guess on the timing on when all of this could happen. We will have to see how this plays out.

best luck for sub 30, and also sub 25

 

[southfork]

best luck for sub 30, and also sub 25

They have two chances of sub 30, slim and none, set up is coming for the moon shot. All those guys with gut feeling about lower silver need to run out and get some rolaids before it clouds their thinking to the point they miss the last sub 40 buying moment. Hells coming to dinner and its brining silver with it.

 

[d-lod]

last leg down, and then a small wait for up-move indication

 

[Silver Buck]

last leg down, and then a small wait for up-move indication

Been keeping super quiet about how my Gin Bottle knows we have one more leg down.

The question is, how far down?

For those who ask 'when' instead of 'how far'?

Stay tuned.

The Gin Bottle says we are approaching a bottom. Somewhere around $30ish. *I* suspect a bit under $30, but the Gin Bottle isn't so 'accurate'.

Just - 'soon'.

 

[d-lod]

Been keeping super quiet about how my Gin Bottle knows we have one more leg down.

The question is, how far down?

For those who ask 'when' instead of 'how far'?

Stay tuned.

The Gin Bottle says we are approaching a bottom. Somewhere around $30ish. *I* suspect a bit under $30, but the Gin Bottle isn't so 'accurate'.

Just - 'soon'.

Its simple cause silver will go little up for traveling iv wave of correction and then final down to its journey of fifth wave. But all this is not very easy, so as I said we are undergoing a set back and next fibo is 30.66 - 30.85

 

[d-lod]

The fibo levels for this minor correction could be 32.98 - first 23% retracment, second level is 31.69$ and least expected 30.65$

The question is would it hold at 30.65 or will become the famous falling knife stuff?

 

[jelly]

sold some of my AGQ at 59, looking for the lower 50's to buy back in.

Bought back in at $50 and change. I did not expect silver to dip this low, but no bother. I picked up 15% more shares. In for the long haul.

 

[eboard10]

d-lod, are we going to witness a last leg down before the correction ends?

 

[d-lod]

The question is would it hold at 30.65 or will become the famous falling knife stuff?

SO be it 30.66...........................now next move will be decided by today's close and Monday opening

 

[d-lod]

d-lod, are we going to witness a last leg down before the correction ends?

We already have from 35.40 to 30.66

 

[d-lod]

Bought back in at $50 and change. I did not expect silver to dip this low, but no bother. I picked up 15% more shares. In for the long haul.

I remember it jelly, but there are many on this forum who have, it just is the question of disclosing...........

The next ride will be to 45.63 or to 54.99 and beyond

 

[d-lod]

I have read a hand written 400 years old technical analysis book, that has a very important rule mentioned in it.

It states that if during correction, when a bearish day is succeeded by a such a bullish day, where by bullish day starts above previous close and then travel down below previous low and closes above previous opening than it is a sign of very big up-move.

This is what exactly happened in silver weekly chart....................lets hope this is a good sign for jelly

 

[eboard10]

Just thought I'd share this interesting repeating trend that has been occuring for the last 4 days.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-16/gold-silver-plunge-deja-deja-deja-vu

Whether it is leveraged AAPL traders forced to sell winning collateral to meet margin calls, correlation-driven algos running stops down and up, or simply the whims of worried custodians managing risk for their clients' holdings; one thing is sure - someone (or more than one) has been a size seller of precious metals in the US-day-session-open to Europe-close period for four days in a row now...

 

[Silver Buck]

Just thought I'd share this interesting repeating trend that has been occuring for the last 4 days.

Ayep, that kind of pattern has been showing up for some time (just not in as short of a period of time) in Silver. Take a look at a couple of dates back in March '11:

I used this reoccurring pattern back in late '10 to buy on the dips and cost average in to establish my position (wish I would have simply gone 'all in' at $17.50 that April, but well... you know how hindsight is). I'd watch the price pattern develop (which I called the London Drop & New York Rebound) and head out of the house with some FRNs at be at the LCS at about the low for the day.

Now, you gotta be a lot quicker.

Addendum: Bless these folks for giving us these predictable buying opportunities.

 

[d-lod]

I remember it jelly, but there are many on this forum who have, it just is the question of disclosing...........

The next ride will be to 45.63 or to 54.99 and beyond

Jelly the toast is on you bro

 

[d-lod]

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1353682800.php

Like the Chinese government and many concerned individuals, these countries may all be stealthily accumulating physical gold, which is being facilitated by the ongoing paper market manipulation aimed at keeping physical precious metal prices low.



One wonders if they could be preparing for the eventual demise of the vastly overprinted U.S. Dollar, which may in turn herald the introduction of a new global reserve currency?



Obviously, none of these sovereigns is buying silver, because there is simply not enough physical silver left at prices anywhere near the current levels trading in the paper market.

 

[Unca Walt]

Can sumbody tell me why all PM trading stopped at 1:51PM Friday?? :hmmmm2::hmmmm2::hmmmm2:

 

[d-lod]

Can sumbody tell me why all PM trading stopped at 1:51PM Friday?? :hmmmm2::hmmmm2::hmmmm2:

really?............... I am stationed in Asia, so wasn't aware of it.........................so they really do not have physical?..............

 

[daozen]

Right, so I missed the dip again?! No tiny last-minute-buyers correction?!

 

[d-lod]

I have read a hand written 400 years old technical analysis book, that has a very important rule mentioned in it.

It states that if during correction, when a bearish day is succeeded by a such a bullish day, where by bullish day starts above previous close and then travel down below previous low and closes above previous opening than it is a sign of very big up-move.

This is what exactly happened in silver weekly chart....................lets hope this is a good sign for jelly

jelly the train will pick up momentum after leaving 35+, as it has shown a weekly reversal for sure for third of third wave as per alf.

 

[d-lod]

In over corrected situations, runaway gaps are common, should we expect runaway gap............

 

[southfork]

Right, so I missed the dip again?! No tiny last-minute-buyers correction?!

You along with Josey, (aka silver art) and many others missed the dip, at 62 I've learned to buy on a regular basis not worrying about dips, peaks, valleys, charts and silver or gold guru rantings, the reality is our debt, taxing and our country are destined for armageddeon and nothing will change it, taxing the rich or cutting spending, we've shipped our growth engine overseas and it wont come back, the pandering to all the illegals come with a multi billion dollar price tag we can ill afford, they will flock to social service roles and bleed dry whats left of it. You need to prepare for the end game, and thats not to win but to survive, allocate so much a month to metals, shop the best price and buy, dont buy with money you may need a few months down the road in the event a big dip does come, theyve sold 50x paper( probably more) than the silver and gold that exist, sooner or later if you dance to the music you have to pay the piper. Not if but when.

 

[d-lod]

You along with Josey, (aka silver art) and many others missed the dip, at 62 I've learned to buy on a regular basis not worrying about dips, peaks, valleys, charts and silver or gold guru rantings, the reality is our debt, taxing and our country are destined for armageddeon and nothing will change it, taxing the rich or cutting spending, we've shipped our growth engine overseas and it wont come back, the pandering to all the illegals come with a multi billion dollar price tag we can ill afford, they will flock to social service roles and bleed dry whats left of it. You need to prepare for the end game, and thats not to win but to survive, allocate so much a month to metals, shop the best price and buy, dont buy with money you may need a few months down the road in the event a big dip does come, theyve sold 50x paper( probably more) than the silver and gold that exist, sooner or later if you dance to the music you have to pay the piper. Not if but when.

This is dip..........................looking at ferocity of wave three.............

 

[Silver Art]

You along with Josey, (aka silver art) and many others missed the dip, at 62 I've learned to buy on a regular basis not worrying about dips, peaks, valleys, charts and silver or gold guru rantings, the reality is our debt, taxing and our country are destined for armageddeon and nothing will change it, taxing the rich or cutting spending, we've shipped our growth engine overseas and it wont come back, the pandering to all the illegals come with a multi billion dollar price tag we can ill afford, they will flock to social service roles and bleed dry whats left of it. You need to prepare for the end game, and thats not to win but to survive, allocate so much a month to metals, shop the best price and buy, dont buy with money you may need a few months down the road in the event a big dip does come, theyve sold 50x paper( probably more) than the silver and gold that exist, sooner or later if you dance to the music you have to pay the piper. Not if but when.

Honestly, for me, it does not matter if I missed this past "dip" or not because I am always looking for and buying silver art bars that I am interested in buying and that are on my silver art bar wish list. In the past 4 years that I have been collecting silver art bars, I have been buying certain ones that I liked when spot was $13 and I have been buying certain ones when spot was $45 early last year and I also have been buying certain ones that I liked when spot crashed back to $26 as well as buying certain ones when spot was in the $31-$32 range. At age 39 and with 4 years of collecting experience, I have learned to just buy what I like at the lowest premium since I am not a real silver stacker. I do not time any of my purchases. I just by the ones that I am interested in collecting when I have the FRNs and the opportunity to get it. In my case as a collector, opportunities have not been there for me recently. When spot silver falls again and goes under $30 and retests the $26 support level, then that will not mean squat to me if the opportunities are not there for me to buy the silver art bars that I want at a decent premium over spot. However, I am patient enough to wait for the next opportunity to buy what I am looking for at a decent .999 generic silver premium. For me patience is the key, not whether or not I was able to buy during a "dip" in the spot silver price. The silver art bar gods will reward me by being patient and persistent.

EDIT: I agree with you (and everyone else) that the negative long term fundamentals (i.e. out-of-control national debt, high deficits, long-term falling $ value, QEInfinity, etc.) will overtake and overwhelm the JPM manipulation that is currently going on with silver and that will cause the silver (and everything else) to go up in $ price but that will not be anytime soon in my opinion. In the short term (before 2015 IMO), JPM still has control over the silver market they will do whatever they can to keep it under $50 for the next few years (before 2015) until they can no control it and it (and everything else) skyrockets upward.

 

[aybesee123]

When spot silver falls again and goes under $30 and retests the $26 support level

:cool05::cool05::cool05::cool05::cool05:

 

[d-lod]

http://www.silverseek.com/article/silver-saga-7861

Bimetallism did not stabilize the exchange rate. On the contrary, it has destabilized it. The natural monetary system is based on silver and gold valued at a variable rate, as Newton’s monetary system in Britain did. Bimetallism was the disease, the demise of the silver standard was the unfortunate consequence. In the Western countries by 1879, in India by 1893, in China, the last stronghold of silver, by 1935, silver was demonetized. Between the two dates 1879 and 1935 the world witnessed a most spectacular event: the collapse of the value of silver by more than 80% in a little over half of a century. Silver fell from $1.29/oz in 1873 to 25¢/oz in 1935. Putting it differently, the gold/silver price ratio rose from 15:1 to more than 80:1. Never in history, ancient or modern, have markets put such fancy values on gold in terms of silver.

 

[d-lod]

http://www.silverseek.com/commentary/silver-ready-catch-32-years-price-suppression-and-break-50-all-time-high-1980-8201

Is this the year silver will catch up with 32 years of price suppression and finally break through its 1980 all-time high of $50 an ounce? No other commodity trades for less than it did three decades ago…

 

[d-lod]

Breaking of 32.03 will give room for down ward movements to 30.66

 

[southfork]

Breaking of 32.03 will give room for down ward movements to 30.66

Gesse, now you sound like Silver Art, we need a rah rah thread.

 

[Gcubed]

Gesse, now you sound like Silver Art, we need a rah rah thread.

To The Moon!!!

:biggrin:

 

[d-lod]

The fibo levels for this minor correction could be 32.98 - first 23% retracment, second level is 31.69$ and least expected 30.65$

Silver in its minor wave correction, the wave lifted silver from its third bottom at 26.12 to 35.38. A rise of $9.26.
This rise is being corrected at present level, as everyone knows that correction takes place in abc pattern, so following analysis can give us probable level for wave c.


a=4.72------------(35.38-30.66)
b=3.74------------(30.66-34.40)
c=?

It could be 3.11/4.72/7.83............as per fibo levels. It could be any of this number and result would be

c=$31.28
c=$29.68
c=$26.52


We have three golden number for silver to finish before it start its journey to next upleg of $15.37 or $24.07