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Silver next upswing

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dawn
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Great

Thanks for all those post, SA you bring out best in everyone;)

I believe you have increased your collection to stupendous level, cause silver is going to be expensive.

MAJOR THREE

wave 1 = 008.41 - 049.78
wave 2 = 049.78 - 026.05
wave 3 = 026.05 - 158.34
 

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dawn
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http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/1/18_Rosen_-_Expect_Stunning_%24233_For_Silver_As_It_Begins_To_Soar.html



Rosen - Expect Stunning $233 For Silver As It Begins To Soar

Ever since the bull market in silver began at $4.01 in November 2001, important and prolonged corrections have taken the form of a triangle. After spending many months forming the triangle a breakout to the upside would take place. The breakout to the upside on each of the three triangles on this monthly chart of silver was followed by a return to and successful test of the breakout level. The successful test was followed months later by a peak at a new high.


The peak of $21.44 after the first triangle was 3.93 times the triangle low of $5.455.


The peak of $49.82 after the second triangle was 5.93 times the triangle low of $8.40.


The third triangle had its breakout to the upside and appears to have completed its testing of that breakout level. If we use the Fibonacci progression that has followed each triangle, the next peak should be 8.93 times the third triangle low of $26.105. This would produce the next silver high of roughly $233....
 

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dawn
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Rise from 29.23 to 32.46, could be corrected to 31.69/31.20/30.80 or 30.45 and below that is dangerous..........than off we visit Niagara.
 

Silver Buck

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Despite that silver finished higher today than it did a week ago, my stance on the short-term price movement of silver has not changed any. I still think that it will go down and will retest the $26 support level sometime in Q1 2013.
Like 'cubed said, later this year.

Maybe not $26, but mid Q3 should be the time to buy.
 

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dawn
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many small ripples make one small wave, many small waves make one little larger wave and many large make a very big wave, we are at making ripples, and these little ones will make biggest wave as this on is 3rd of MAJOR III.

I am working on EW of last twelve years for Gold and am mesmerized by fear shown in elongated extensions twice, once in large 3rd of MAJOR I (318-730), and second time in 1st of MAJOR III(680-1920).

This is 3rd of MAJOR III, believe me it will pay the most in whole of the bull phase, and for that patience is the only tool.
 

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dawn
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The way this market has been running the past dozen years I would bet the largest gains come in a fifth wave extension. Only the bagholders will be on board for that. Problem is they will ride it to 0 afterward. This smells like it gets real ugly. Betting on a failed Summer rally followed by more disappointment. I'm getting too old for this $hit. :cool1:
Clive Maund will make you feel young

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Maund/20130214.html

We can see the long-term uptrend in silver on its 7-year chart. On this chart we can also see that there is very strong support at the multiple lows of the past 18 months, at and just above $26, which also happens to be very close to the support of its long-term uptrend line. A dip into this zone will be the point at which to buy silver (in the approx. $26 - $27.50 area circled in green) for the next major upleg, and the proximity of a very clearly defined strong support level affords a very favorable risk/reward ratio, as a protective stop can be set just below it.

If silver does go on to break down below the strong support level at $26, it will be very bad news indeed, as such a development could be expected to trigger a brutal plunge, and there is a scenario in which this could occur as set out in more detail in the parallel Gold Market update.
lhslancers3270

We were discussing this earlier, but didn't stick to it. For long time I nurtured apprehension of silver's volatile nature, but after Alf field's last write up about the correction is over, started trumpeting his theory.
 

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dawn
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lhslancers3270

You are right if this is end of wave from 8-49 than the correction should also be that magnificent. The metal should not breach 21........ as it was the top of wave I and this wave cannot cross it, though silver is silver and has broken that rule too.
do not panic, it may be a wild roller coaster ride if it breaks 27.
 

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dawn
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http://www.321gold.com/editorials/saxena/saxena030213.html

Looking at precious metals, it is becoming clear to us that both gold and silver put in major tops in 2011 and the onus now lies on the bulls to reverse the downtrend. As you will recall, we sold our positions last spring and since then, our advice has been to avoid this sector. Whichever way you cut it, the reality is that the price action in both gold and silver has been extremely disappointing and despite the ongoing QE-ternity, the selling pressure has overwhelmed the buyers! Look. If you review the price charts objectively, you will note that both gold and silver have formed a series of declining tops and they are currently trading well below the 200-day moving average. Needless to say, such price action is bearish and in our view, there is now a real risk that the prices of both gold and silver will fall below last summer’s lows. If that happens, the secular bull-market will be over and prices will probably drift lower for several years.
 

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dawn
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Hey Jodster

I understand your challenges without charts, but the technique that I follow is Elliot wave and it is mostly all about wave counts, so I haven't bothered myself with learning the uploading part.

As I had mentioned that wave C will be deeper than wave,( as in this thread it was mentioned in month of may that )the wave C may extend upto 22.6.

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Trendsman/jun272011.html




Post #72

06-28-2011 08:10 AM

This is ridiculous, but so true........................If technical analysis is about timing also, than we have failed by two years.


Thanks to posters for their patience and Kudos to Jelly for frequenting this site.
 

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dawn
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YAA so something is missing very funny!
We are missing 33 posts.

http://news.goldseek.com/InsigniaConsultants/1366092060.php

COMEX GOLD JUNE 2013 – current price $1350.80

Bullish over $1380.00 with $1430.10 and $1530.00 price target

Bearish below $1330.00 with $1303.70 and $1272.10 as price target

Neutral Zone between $1330-$1380

Break point: $1380

$1380.10 price target achieved. Key long term support is at $1270 and as long as gold trades over $1270 the chances of a rise to $1530-$1600 are high.

There will be another wave of selling below $1270 to $1055

A daily close below $1380 today will be highly bearish for gold.
 

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dawn
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Gold can fall to $1276 and $1055 as long as it trades below $1380

Silver will see another wave of selling below $2176 to $1976 and $1735

Copper needs to trade over $322 to target $339-$356

Crude oil looks headed for $84.50 and $82.20 as long as it trades below $88.90

A lot of our clients were long in gold and silver on Friday. We had advised to use a trailing stop loss of $1518 and to reverse the buy position into sell position when gold prices fell below $1518. For silver we had advised to use a trailing stop loss of $2590 and to reverse buys into sells when silver prices fell below $2590. This strategy has so far worked to perfection.

How long will gold and silver fall continue is a bit difficult to comment. I still maintain that fifty percent corrections from the high are a part and parcel of a long term bull rally. One needs to have spare investible funds so that they can start investing in gold and silver in very small amounts and aggressively if and when gold prices near $1000. If you are already invested in gold and silver then you will get positive returns from 2015 onwards. It may take another eighteen months to twenty months to restart another bull run to $5000. When I write $5000 some of you me thinking that only fools will be bullish on gold. My reason for a gold price rise to $5000 is that (1) the purchasing power of currencies will fall further or if I rephrase it purchasing power of currencies will never rise (2) Protectionism is on the rise and nations will ignore free trade pacts to spruce up jobs in their own lands (3) This is the last cycle of US dollar gains and the next cycle of US dollar fall will be only the demise of the greenback and gold rising to mars and beyond the reach of me and you. (4) Under the worst case scenario if all hell breaks loose then gold price can fall to $800. Gold miners have a cost of around $800 and they will not sell gold below $800. (5) Gold prices are being manipulated by unified action of central banks and is the key reason for the fall (6) Quantitative easing (QE) will fail miserably and could be another Vietnam in the making for global economy. (7) Investment in stocks are not as safe as one perceives.

another alf and sinclair in making
 

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dawn
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Now is the time to buckle your belt, so that you don't fall out. The ride if break previous low, than would be fast, steep and quite low, may be time to visit 19+
 

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dawn
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Silver and EW


Wave 1 of III
wave i 8.41 - 19.46 = 11.05
wave ii 19.46 - 14.63 = 4.83
wave iii 14.63 - 31.23 = 16.6
wave iv 31.23 - 26.37 = 4.86
wave v 26.37 - 44.05/55.1

As London market is closed there will be two way movements till Tuesday

The psychological top is $50/- while ew top could be +/- $54/-

so whats everyone's opinion?

Was posted on 04-25-2011 05:35 AM

From this we can see that 19+ was top of first wave of the last top, a journey from 8+ to 49
 

Zed

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Now is the time to buckle your belt, so that you don't fall out. The ride if break previous low, than would be fast, steep and quite low, may be time to visit 19+
I don't do EW but I can see support in the mid 19's if we break lower here, sub 22 and this is on the cards IMO between now and options expiry 28/5 is the window.

2c
 

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dawn
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19 wasn't the high price it was 21.30. Two years and a few days from the 2011 highs. Given that info I am curious what bagholders having this in their backpocket would still be choosing to have held through this? More than a few I would guess. Free Silver Free Gold coming soon. Don't sell you might not be able to buy back.:finger:
Travel the Memory lane lhslancers.

21.30 was the top for 2006 and it corrected itself to 8+, and from there the next wave started and its high was 19.46. So from 21.30 to 8.41 and from there it went to 19.40.
 
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I'm not buying any silver in the 19.xx because I have a long-term chart says silver wants to visit $15.xx

If silver closes for multiple weeks above $24.50, then I am wrong.
 
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the Apr low of 22 can be seen as a test of the 21.xx high made in 2008.

It's likely silver will make an intermediate bottom between $17 and $19, rally to $25 to let everyone have confidence that the bottom is in, then crash one more time to make a lasting bottom.
 

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dawn
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the Apr low of 22 can be seen as a test of the 21.xx high made in 2008.

It's likely silver will make an intermediate bottom between $17 and $19, rally to $25 to let everyone have confidence that the bottom is in, then crash one more time to make a lasting bottom.
an intermediate bottom between $17 and $19,
mamma-mia


now that is very - very conservative outlook, so what would be your final bottom??????????????????????
 

newmisty

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Either way my money has gone into a large box truck with the reverse signal muted...
 

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AgAuGal

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Man this is painful to watch. Still can't get the Ag I would want for less than $4 over not including S&H. Spot under $23 but have to pay over 25.50 - 27.50 for rounds plus S&H.
 

Starter

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the Apr low of 22 can be seen as a test of the 21.xx high made in 2008.

It's likely silver will make an intermediate bottom between $17 and $19, rally to $25 to let everyone have confidence that the bottom is in, then crash one more time to make a lasting bottom.

Is your money where your words are (or aren't)?

Everyone knows Warren Buffet strongly advises against holding PMs, but he always held that viewpoint, so it could be argued that his opinion is biased.

But this year, lots of former PM bulls are advising holding no PMs or very little PMs.
 
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Is your money where your words are (or aren't)?

Everyone knows Warren Buffet strongly advises against holding PMs, but he always held that viewpoint, so it could be argued that his opinion is biased.

But this year, lots of former PM bulls are advising holding no PMs or very little PMs.
Maybe they sold high and are waiting to buy? Just a thought. ;)
 

Ahillock

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Point is this Silver market has taken out the 50% of the highest selling price at $25. Next important level to hold is the last MAJOR TOP which was $21.30 Spot. 21 doesn't hold we'll see 15 which was the next lower important top. 19 means nothing.

I am a little slow as I need some coffee, but why are you saying $19 means nothing?

 

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pimples

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I am a little slow as I need some coffee, but why are you saying $19 means nothing?


yeah, its needed that $20 for a long time........that will set up large Elliott wave big 3 up of giant 3..........i'm bullish, believe it or not.....giant wave 1 was from $4 to $21, big wave two down was back to $8, wave 1 of this giant 3 was $8 to $50, hopefully this is it for wave 2 ($50 down to $20ish), then ??? $20 to $100??? (multiples of 500% ???).....cheers from an old man....$100