• "Spreading the ideas of freedom loving people on matters regarding high finance, politics, constructionist Constitution, and mental masturbation of all types"

Silver next upswing

savvydon

Gold Member
Gold Chaser
Joined
Dec 14, 2010
Messages
3,143
Likes
2,835
What is the guess? 1/4 point?
Why would the ds cut rates? They are timed to destroy the economy before the election.
My guess is less educated than your average pundit. Regardless, in any of the major scenarios an argument can be made that whatever is being done shines a light on the general poor health of the economy.
 

Pyramid

Gold Member
Gold Chaser
Sr Site Supporter
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
1,860
Likes
2,415
Location
The 57th State
Bearish article on silbur FWIW:

Can Silver Lead PMs Higher Still?
Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Thursday July 25, 2019 15:19
Kitco Commentaries | Opinions, Ideas and Markets Talk
Featuring views and opinions written by market professionals, not staff journalists.

It’s not true that yesterday’s session in precious metals was uneventful. While gold and mining stocks didn’t do much, silver moved a bit above its previous high, closing at a fresh 2019 high. Sounds pretty remarkable, doesn’t it? In today’s analysis, we’ll put silver’s breakout into proper perspective and examine if the white metal has much more room to run.

Let’s dive in to the silver chart. The situation there seems to have changed - but is it really the case?



There is actually much more to the silver story than just a breakout above the recent highs. In fact, the breakout itself is not that important. What is important, is the resistance that was just reached and how it relates to what we saw in the past.

By “resistance” we actually mean two resistance levels. One is created based on the line that’s parallel to the rising support line created by connecting the 2018 and 2019 bottoms. Copying this line and moving it higher so that it touches the early 2019 high creates the upper border of the rising trend channel. This is silver’s second move higher and the “C” part of a rising ABC correction pattern (the late-2018 – early-2019 rally was the “A” part of the move and the subsequent decline was “B”). The ABC corrections (a.k.a. zigzags) are relatively common corrective patterns that don’t change the preceding trend. In this case, the trend was down.

We can speak of the big downtrend that started in 2011, or we can speak of the more medium-term downtrend that started in 2016 – either way, the corrective ABC pattern seems to have already run its course as silver moved to the upper border of the trend channel.

There is also additional reason for silver to turn south from the current price levels that’s even more important. Taking the 2016 top as the starting price for the decline and using the 2018 bottom as the final (so far) bottom, we get $16.70 as the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. This is a good reason on its own for silver to turn around, especially if we also consider the fact that silver moved to the above-mentioned upper border of the trade channel.

The extremely bearish outlook comes from something else, though. There are many things that emphasize that the outlook is extremely bearish (such as the recent volume readings in silver and silver stocks), but with regard to the price level that was reached yesterday, there is one more very important detail that most investors will likely miss.

The entire 2016 – now situation and the 2011 – late-2012 price movement are very similar.

In both cases there were actually four bottoms at very similar price levels that preceded the final upswing and the first one of them was very sharp (late 2011 and mid-2017). The timing between the following bottoms was different, but there are two major similarities that just can’t be ignored or left unmentioned.

The first thing is that all major tops were lower than the previous ones. The only outlier is the early-2019 top, which – as it turned out – wasn’t the final top for the rally, so overall it seems that the analogy remains intact.

The second thing is that the top (the one in early 2012) that preceded the final top of the consolidation is extremely similar to the mid-2018 one and this an extremely useful roadmap sign that tells us where silver is in light of the entire analogy.

The key thing is that the final pre-slide (late-2012) top formed at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level based on the preceding decline. The early 2012 top formed slightly below the 50% retracement (intraday high) and the weekly close was a bit below the 38.2% retracement. The mid-2018 top (analogous to the late-2012 one) also formed a bit below the 50% retracement and the weekly close of that top was a bit below the 38.2% retracement.

This means that if the analogy remains intact, silver should top at the 38.2% retracement right now, which is at $16.70. And what was silver’s high yesterday? $16.68 – almost exactly the level of the retracement. This price level is today’s pre-market high based on finance.yahoo.com and stooq.com prices.

The top that was just reached is likely much more important than it seems based on just today’s intraday chart.

Summary
Summing up, these are not pleasant times for anyone who refuses to jump on the bullish bandwagon just because prices are moving higher, but what’s profitable is rarely the thing that feels good initially. The relative strength in the silver market is a factor that’s beyond bearish, while the strength in gold stocks appears just as misleading as their weakness was back in early 2016. Gold has just invalidated its breakout above the previous highs, the late-2013 highs, and the upper border of the pennant pattern, which is a very strong bearish sign. The price levels that were just reached in silver imply that the top is in.

https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-07-25/Can-Silver-Lead-PMs-Higher-Still.html
 

Goldhedge

Moderator
Site Mgr
Sr Site Supporter
Joined
Mar 28, 2010
Messages
42,205
Likes
66,977
Location
Rocky Mountains
It's been pointed out that the banks are now buyers of gold, yet everyone says Silver to da Moon.

Why aren't the banks buying silver?
 

d-lod

dawn
Silver Miner
Joined
Apr 18, 2010
Messages
1,025
Likes
484
Location
toronto/asia
It's been pointed out that the banks are now buyers of gold, yet everyone says Silver to da Moon.

Why aren't the banks buying silver?

because they are not as smart as us.............or they don't have storage space..............

https://www.jmbullion.com/investing...metals/how-much-fine-silver-bullion-in-world/

It is estimated that throughout human history approximately 1.5 million tonnes of silver have been mined able to fit into a 52-meter cube. Unlike gold, which is almost all entirely with us still today, most silver has been used and thrown away without being recycled. Expert sliver researchers state that 90% of all silver mined has been lost to landfills. In other words roughly 5 billion ounces of silver remain of which only roughly 2 billion troy ounces remain in bullion form (just over 4% of all time mined silver).
 

stonedywankanobe

.409'er
Gold Chaser
Site Supporter ++
Joined
Dec 6, 2012
Messages
2,164
Likes
4,375
All easily reachable silver is gone brothers. Now it exist only in the highest, rarest and hard to reach spots you cant even imagine.

Anybody says any different is full of crap.
 

savvydon

Gold Member
Gold Chaser
Joined
Dec 14, 2010
Messages
3,143
Likes
2,835
All easily reachable silver is gone brothers. Now it exist only in the highest, rarest and hard to reach spots you cant even imagine.

Anybody says any different is full of crap.
Stone man there are plenty of bars and coins still available - a lot more than I can scarf up all by my lonesome. If what you say is true is may be time for another visit to the 'ol LCS.
 

the_shootist

Midas Member
Midas Member
Midas Supporter
Joined
May 31, 2015
Messages
34,192
Likes
45,775
All easily reachable silver is gone brothers. Now it exist only in the highest, rarest and hard to reach spots you cant even imagine.

Anybody says any different is full of crap.
Strange, I can reach as much silver as my wallet can support. I'm not sure what you're referencing here.
 

savvydon

Gold Member
Gold Chaser
Joined
Dec 14, 2010
Messages
3,143
Likes
2,835
Sometimes the Stonster is a mystery, wrapped up in an enigma and tied in a Gordian knot, but I guess you've gotta ask him.
 

BigJim#1-8

Silver Member
Silver Miner
Site Supporter ++
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
2,579
Likes
8,837
Strange, I can reach as much silver as my wallet can support. I'm not sure what you're referencing here.
JMHO, I could be way off base.
I believe Wanka might have been referring to mining silver. Again, I might be mistaken.
 

d-lod

dawn
Silver Miner
Joined
Apr 18, 2010
Messages
1,025
Likes
484
Location
toronto/asia
I am not sure why this break out would not have the same angle of appreciation as the previous or better View attachment 140034

WE ARE, .............. where there is black sign of right, and Axstone you are showing different advance wave.....................shhhhhhhhhhhh, you are joking ain't you................

1567472008253.png
 
Last edited:

d-lod

dawn
Silver Miner
Joined
Apr 18, 2010
Messages
1,025
Likes
484
Location
toronto/asia
It may return from here or may go to 20.60...........in wildest dream can reach 25.44$ (RAREST 4.61 EXTENSION OF 3RD WAVE)
 
Last edited:
Joined
Jun 23, 2019
Messages
137
Likes
210
Quater here, a dollar there. Not shooting for the stars at 9 am then in the basement by lunchtime. It's been flat for way too long.
 
Joined
Jun 23, 2019
Messages
137
Likes
210
Well, I'm not getting a nosebleed and I don't think this is a dumb money spike. More like the beginning of what we have all been waiting for. First signs that price manipulation is unraveling.

Nice chart Axstone.
 

Thecrensh

Gold Member
Gold Chaser
Joined
Jun 26, 2013
Messages
6,799
Likes
9,066
Well, I'm not getting a nosebleed and I don't think this is a dumb money spike. More like the beginning of what we have all been waiting for. First signs that price manipulation is unraveling.

Nice chart Axstone.
It would be nice to have the manipulation end, then have Trump put the Fed out of business and back on the Gold standard....maybe it's happening.
 

Mr Paradise

Midas Member
Midas Member
Joined
Dec 3, 2011
Messages
8,596
Likes
9,499
Location
Lake Superior
I noticed all PM's dropped yesterday, wonder what that was all about.
The soap opera took a stunning turn when China & Amerika decided to not push the global thermonuclear war button and instead scheduled trade talks meeting for October in Washington ....metals didn’t stand a chance.
Stay tuned next week to see who’s the father of Judy’s baby and if little Jimmy got accepted into Cornell.