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Silver next upswing

eboard10

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klichko

Same to you. OK. be ready for two counts, one as per Alf and second as per other probabilities. One of the probability is financial turmoil in Global village.

One see this wave as wave 1 of THIRD and second takes it as completion of major WAVE ONE.


dlod are you saying that the new wave has just begun or is it going to start next month? Prices seem to have "stabilized" during the last week or two, oddly enough given the current financial uncertainty.
 

klichko

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D-lod,

Do you have any timeline for this correction?

We are now in seasonal up-trend. Do you think we will see $26 and $1,300 or so later in January-February when speculators take profits (they usually since taxes are not due until 2013). Thanks.
 

lightcycler

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Who did say this?

I really see gold and silver dropping. Gold appears to be tracing out a contracting triangle. I talk about gold because they move somewhat in tandom. My target for gold is around 1600. Silver in the 24 to 26 range. I have dry powder and just waiting. I think this happens over the next two weeks. An explosion higher is coming for sure after that.
 

d-lod

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I really see gold and silver dropping. Gold appears to be tracing out a contracting triangle. I talk about gold because they move somewhat in tandom. My target for gold is around 1600. Silver in the 24 to 26 range. I have dry powder and just waiting. I think this happens over the next two weeks. An explosion higher is coming for sure after that.

DITTO


I know I may be wrong, this is the first time, I am not so sure, but if we have completed Major WAVE ONE than the correction will be deeper.

The technical are simple to analyze as far as precious metal is concerned, on weekly chart the momentum of 14 value has gone deeper than in correction of silver from 21 to 8. That worries me the most.
 

Work

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DITTO


I know I may be wrong, this is the first time, I am not so sure, but if we have completed Major WAVE ONE than the correction will be deeper.

The technical are simple to analyze as far as precious metal is concerned, on weekly chart the momentum of 14 value has gone deeper than in correction of silver from 21 to 8. That worries me the most.

I hate burst your buble, and I will try and break this to you gently. :broken_heart:

The markets are manipulated. Rigged. Its a sham. Technical analysis is waste of your time.

Buy and hold physical gold and silver. :bussi:

Sorry, sometimes the truth really hurts. :bear_cry:

:hahaha: LOL:
 

lightcycler

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I hate burst your buble, and I will try and break this to you gently. :broken_heart:

The markets are manipulated. Rigged. Its a sham. Technical analysis is waste of your time.

Buy and hold physical gold and silver. :bussi:

Sorry, sometimes the truth really hurts. :bear_cry:

:hahaha: LOL:

Uhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh Ok :flute:
 

AguA

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Seems to me most things in life are manipulated. But the larger the scale, the more need for logic behind the manipulation. I thought that's what analysis was for...to find and track the logic.

If I'm wrong, show me before I waste more time trying to learn this stuff.

:confused:
 

lightcycler

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Based on technical chart analysis of both Silver and GOld. I believe we have bottomed or are bottoming this morning. My target of 1600 for gold has been reached. SIlver appears to have formed an ending diagonal for wave five. That bottom is around $28.70 ish. I have been waiting to buy since mid october and have carts loaded and ready to pull the trigger today. If I"m wrong then dang it I have another boat load of metals. Man I hate that :) :565:


Picked up 150 ounces of silver. Maybe not a boat load but I'm happy :)
 
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KnowNothing

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Glad I have $0 to my name.

I see these prices and as a broke-ass college student I can just sit back and watch.

Oh well, that's life I guess.
 

klichko

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D-lod,

What do you think? All in? Buy some? Hold?
 

daozen

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As a technical ignorant who's speaking from pure intuiton, ...if you can get it below 30, all or almost all in! oh, sorry you are asking dlod, well, thats my position anyway
 

Work

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I have a magic eight ball. (Not cocaine)

It contains three answers.

1. Up
2. Down
3. Flat

I shake the ball three times a day and chart the answer. The ball was accurate on the run up to 48, the short selling manipulation down, and back up to 45. Then this latest blatant criminal silver take down.
**This marvel of technical analysis is for sale.

1-One oz Gold Maple and its yours.

PM me if interested.

It’s a sure thing.
 

Lore

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Maund's analysis is usually noise IMO, but even if he's right, who cares?
 

REO 54

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Silver under 28 and dropping...
 

Tinbox

YOU GET NOTHING! YOU LOSE, GOOD DAY SIR!
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i'm hoping the next correction is upward :shocked_ma:
 

REO 54

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As I have been saying wait for positive divergence since June.

I know,I know.I just said I was getting it ready.It's a turbo diesel duece and half ya know.:D
 

REO 54

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All kidding aside,and for clairtiy sake for me,are we talking about divergence of paper from physical or.....?
 

klichko

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All kidding aside,and for clairtiy sake for me,are we talking about divergence of paper from physical or.....?

Nope. We are talking about technical indicators when silver is bullish again.
 

d-lod

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Nope. We are talking about technical indicators when silver is bullish again.

Thanks

I am sure now dlod can be replaced by klichko...................................
 

hoarder

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All kidding aside,and for clairtiy sake for me,are we talking about divergence of paper from physical or.....?
There is a surplus of paper silver driving the POS down while at the same time supplies of physical are tight. Tulving is completely out of 90% silver. They had over 50 bags this summer.

There are only two things that can happen; divergence between paper and physical silver or people being foolish enough to buy paper silver when they can't find the real thing.
 

REO 54

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Thanks

I am sure now dlod can be replaced by klichko...................................


klichko was just helping out a noob.You are the master of this thread.:D
 

d-lod

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klichko was just helping out a noob.You are the master of this thread.:D

REO 54

You have less idea of klichko's importance. He has always stood by me and was as big a supporter as you, for this thread to take this journey.
Thanks to both of you.
 

Silver Buck

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d-lod, one of the best things I can say about your use of EW is that there is no emotion involved concerning the analyst. Sure, emotions are involved by the masses (your circular chart of the seasonal habits clearly shows this), but as an analyst, you simply look at history repeating itself in its predictable and irresistible ebb and flow.

As the tide rises, it will surely fall, and rise and fall again.
 

klichko

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Then we should sell all our silver and buy ZSL

At this point, may be not. It was a good idea when silver was $40+.

For me (now), it seems too risky to bet on spot dropping to $20 or lower.
Silver was down to ~$26.2 today and bounced back to ~$27.7 rather quickly. Seems like strong buying.

Yet gold has some more room to go down and may take silver (the dog) on a walk :D

D-lod, thanks a lot for this thread (IMHO, the best GIM thread of 2011!). Your analysis has proven to be correct. Everything you said was true - it is a fact. I remember when everyone were bullish on other threads and could not resist pulling a trigger, you insisted (even after briefly seeing $26 one intraday!) that we were still in a corrective mode. Do you have any update on your EW analysis?
 

d-lod

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At this point, may be not. It was a good idea when silver was $40+.

For me (now), it seems too risky to bet on spot dropping to $20 or lower.
Silver was down to ~$26.2 today and bounced back to ~$27.7 rather quickly. Seems like strong buying.

Yet gold has some more room to go down and may take silver (the dog) on a walk :D

D-lod, thanks a lot for this thread (IMHO, the best GIM thread of 2011!). Your analysis has proven to be correct. Everything you said was true - it is a fact. I remember when everyone were bullish on other threads and could not resist pulling a trigger, you insisted (even after briefly seeing $26 one intraday!) that we were still in a corrective mode. Do you have any update on your EW analysis?

Lightcycler

Must be catching up dementia, how can I forget your positive contribution and off course, Ishlancer too. Thanks all of you for support in year 2011.
 

lightcycler

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Lightcycler

Must be catching up dementia, how can I forget your positive contribution and off course, Ishlancer too. Thanks all of you for support in year 2011.

May 2012 be a prosperous year. Thanks D-lod for your analysis and efforts. Happy NEW YEAR
 

d-lod

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http://www.kitco.com/ind/maund/jan162012_silverA.html

Right now everything is hanging in the balance - it could tip either way, but as we will shortly see it would appear that Smart Money is betting on the return to business as usual, and as they make money, by definition, we are perfectly happy doing what they do, if we can figure it out, that is.

The reason that we were wary, and are still mindful of the position of the exits, is that a large potential Head-and-Shoulders top pattern has formed in silver, as we can see on our 2-year "Scenario 1" chart for silver, which is much the same as the one shown in the last update. The support shown at the bottom of this pattern is clearly of massive importance with the price staging major reversals 3 times at it, so failure of this support, which would signify a breakdown from the H&S top, would be a very bearish development that could be expected to lead to a severe drop. If this scenario eventuates it would signify the onset of a deflationary downwave, such as would be precipitated by the failure of one or more major banks in Europe, leading to a chain reaction and a run on the banks. This is possible, but as mentioned above, it does not appear to be what Big Money is betting on. From a practical standpoint the one key conclusion that we should draw from this chart is that all long positions in silver should be closed out, or at least hedged, in the event of a break below the neckline support of the H&S pattern.




We have until now concentrated on this Head-and-Shoulders thesis and not really considered the possibility that the entire reaction from the April high, which was a downtrend bounded by parallel trend boundaries, is quietly morphing into a strongly bullish Falling Wedge, as shown on our 2-year "Scenario 2" chart below. This became more apparent just last Thursday when the upper boundary of this proposed Wedge shaped channel forced the price to reverse yet again, giving added validity to the steeper downtrend line in force from September. Additional bullish factors associated with this Wedge are the fact that it is fast closing up just above the zone of strong support, plus the fact that volume has died back to a low level compared to most of last year, as remaining fed up silver investors fold their tent and call it a day. This is the stuff of which great rallies are born, particularly when it coincides with very low levels of bullish sentiment and COTs showing record bullish readings.




The chart showing public opinion on silver was at its most negative ever about a week ago - even worse than in the darkest days of 2008 - although it recovered somewhat this past week. This is also clearly very bullish, as the last thing you want to see is public enthusiasm for something you are buying - you want that when you come to sell it.
 

TomJerry

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If I'm understanding correctly, we now have positive divergence on MACD? Which is very bullish yes?
 

daozen

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My gut tells me we'll see one last small dip at 25ish in a month or more before the start of the end.
 

REO 54

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Sunday, January 08, 2012
Got Gold Report – Silver, You Ain’t Seen Nothin’ Yet
HOUSTON -- On the day after Christmas last year we shared with Vultures (Got Gold Report Subscribers) our commentary on the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) weekly report of the commitments of traders (COT) in COMEX silver futures for the period ending Tuesday, December 20. A few days later, on December 28, we shared that review with our entire readership in these pages as a holiday courtesy. In that review we said, as simply and clearly as our command of the vocabulary can convey, that “this COT setup is about as bullish as they come.”

Since that report there have been two subsequent COT reports and the changes which have occurred and have been reported are in keeping with our view then that the positioning of the large traders of silver futures in New York: “gives us cover to begin adding in our green target box for silver with reasonable confidence, for the first time in over a year, if only the Trading Gods will allow it.” The green box on our tracking chart is visible in this reduced version of one of our silver tracking graphs we share with Vultures.



One of our silver tracking graphs at Got Gold Report. This is the 1-year, daily version which contains part of our weekly commentary in the dialog boxes. The chart is actually quite a bit larger than shown and must be reduced quite a bit to fit this format. Vultures have access to the full sized version any time.


Continued…

As Vultures already know, because they have constant access to all of our tracking and trading charts in the subscriber pages, we often use target boxes placed in advance on our charts to denote areas we intend to consider attempting a trade or to add to a position. In addition to those target boxes, we also often add commentary directly in the various charts to explain our thinking as the events and conditions change. It is a very effective way to convey how we are approaching the markets we track and game. Our “green box” for silver in our tracking chart has been in the same locale for quite some time – ever since we adopted the “Giant Flag” consolidation theory of the silver market.

Silver Enters and Bounces in “The Green”

On Thursday, December 29, having broken implied $28 technical support silver headed south in a hurry in nervous, thin trading early (in the U.S.), entering our green target box for the first time. As the trading neared the September panic spike low near $26.15 (actually the third test of $26 in 2011, having tested it in January and September prior) our instinct was then to set up a trade to fire the instant a bounce seemed to be in the making – so we did. As if on cue, bidding flowed in to support silver at almost the precise area the September panic spike was exhausted (about $26.15) (in the pre-market hours for the Big Markets).

For the first time in over a year we initiated a new silver trade that day, securing a long position in our predetermined zone of potential support (filled at $26.41), as Vultures already know. What some new Vultures may not know, and longer-time Vultures may have forgotten, our last silver trade was stopped out about a year earlier in January of 2011, as we disclosed then on the blog. (We urge readers to review that linked post, if for no other reason than to review the January 20 2011 chart before continuing this offering.)

Silver’s 2011 Bounce at $26 Higher Than We Expected

At the time, in late January of 2011, amid harsh profit taking for precious metals, including some of the heaviest negative money flow for silver ETFs we had seen up to that time, we had decided to target the area of a previous October 2010 flag consolidation for possible reentry (about $0.75 either side of $23 or so, as shown in the chart in the link above). In other words, in January of 2011 we expected more of a retrace by silver than actually occurred, as silver then fetched up just above the $26 level and just didn’t provide us with a reentry we were comfortable with then.

Consequently, except for our holdings of physical metal, we missed out on the run-up of silver from $26 to around $49 from January to April last year as far as our short-term trading was concerned. It was about that time that we adopted our current attitude with regard to silver – that since we already hold a meaningful position in physical silver, we had the luxury to wait for an extraordinary correction before taking another shot with our short term trading.

It should be crystal clear by now, but in case it isn’t, we believe that silver is in the midst of just the kind of extraordinary correction which allows us to put on a new short-term trading position – the first new trade in silver for us since August of 2010 (silver then below $19). We think that the fact that silver has come all the way back down from its near brush with an all time high in April to as low as $26.15 is a bona fide opportunity. Right or wrong, that is indeed how we have chosen to play it too.

http://www.gotgoldreport.com/2012/0...=3bb49e9d3a-Sprott_Money_247&utm_medium=email
 

KnowNothing

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What's the good word for today?

Ben Bernacles said interest rates to stay low until mid 2013, and now a big buying taking place?

Silver soared in the past couple days.

Any word from the wise, d-lod?