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SILVER SHORTAGES ARE HERE AND GOLD SCARCITY IS COMING

Scorpio

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#1
SILVER SHORTAGES ARE HERE AND GOLD SCARCITY IS COMING
April 12, 2019


by Egon von Greyerz


MMT is the socialists’ dream. It officially stands for Modern Monetary Theory but a more appropriate name would be More Money Theory. Because MMT is just a fancy name to justify more money printing, more deficits and more debts. Socialists love MMT, because for a sovereign nation, it justifies constantly living above your means.
This is of course nothing new for the US which has practised MMT for soon 70 years. Not since the early 1960s has the US had a real budget surplus. Europe has had socialist governments for decades, but for the US it is a relatively new phenomenon. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) has now picked up the baton from Krugman, arguing that socialism and deficit spending is the solution to the US problems and the world’s.
US UBER-SPENDING
Trump, who normally is as far from a socialist as you can get, is nevertheless applying MMT to the US economy by continuing to spend money that doesn’t exist. His tax cutting and uber-spending, combined with the imminent downturn of the US economy, will soon put the US in the same category as countries like Italy. That is what is called the basket case category where default will be unavoidable.
As opposed to Italy, the US can print its own money. And they continue to do at an ever increasing rate. Just look at the chart below which shows the only way the US government knows how to grow GDP. But we must remember that printing unlimited amounts of worthless money leads to a total debasement of the currency which is just another form of default.
From 1970 to 2008 it took $0.77 of debt to produce $1 of GDP. From 2008 to 2019 it has taken $4 of debt to produce $1 of GDP. In simple terms, the US is running on empty.

FALSE MONEY LEADS TO FALSE VALUES
How can anyone believe that any of the values we are looking at today are real. Bezos and his wife are worth $150 billion and his company Amazon has a Market Cap of $1.4 trillion. These are just fantasy numbers. And so are all the other billion and trillion dollar values that have been created out of nothing. So the US government has printed $13 trillion since 2008. And the world as a whole has increased total debt by $125 trillion. It is all this money that has created the illusory wealth in the world in this century.
Very few people realise that these telephone book numbers will all vanish in the next crisis and lose 90 to 100% in nominal value.
REAL GDP GROWTH HAS BEEN NEGATIVE SINCE 2000
Looking at the growth in GDP, based on real inflation (ShadowStats), real GDP growth has grown by less than 2% annually since 1990. And since 2000, real GDP growth in the US has been negative. The reason for that is obvious. The US has printed $4 to achieve $1 increase in nominal GDP. But the nominal figure is totally meaningless since it has only been achieved by printing $13 trillion of fake money that has ZERO value. How can anyone believe that you can create wealth by just creating money out of thin air. If an individual prints fake money, that would be a blatant fraud and he would end up in prison.

FRAUD OF THE HIGHEST DEGREE
So why isn’t it fraud when a government prints money? Well of course it is fraud of the highest degree. A country that creates debts and prints money is defrauding its people. But sadly the people are unaware of the misdeeds of their government. They don’t realise that the value of the dollar, pound or euro in their pockets is declining precipitously.
The best way to determine the decline of paper money over time is to measure it against gold. All currencies are crashing against gold in this century. The dollar has lost 79% since 2000, measured in gold and the pound 82% as the charts below show. The decline has paused since 2012 but the next leg down is imminent. Within the next 4-6 years, the move down should take the dollar and the pound to their intrinsic values of zero. This fall will be accompanied by unlimited money printing in a final and desperate attempt by central banks to save the global financial system. Sadly, they are guaranteed to fail.

GOLS IN US $ WILL SOON BREAK THE MAGINOT LINE
In the short term, gold seems to have stalled just below the critical Gold Maginot Line at $1,350. Just like the French did in WWII, the BIS and the bullion banks are defending this line strongly.
The Germans pushed through the Maginot Line at its weakest point and the same will soon be the case with the Gold Maginot Line. Gold has already broken through this line in many currencies like the Australian and Canadian dollar, the pound, the Swedish and Norwegian kroner etc. Thus it is only a matter of time before the US dollar line is broken at $1,350.
GOLD IS ETERNAL MONEY
Investors who hold gold for the right reasons are not concerned. Gold is eternal money and therefore short term moves are irrelevant. We know that when governments and central banks behave irresponsibly, like they have done for the last 100 years, it will all end badly. When it does, gold will reach levels that no one can imagine today. But when that happens, the world will be a much worse place to live. So best to enjoy the present times as long as they last.
THE EU ELITE IS DESPERATE
The fall of the EU and the Euro is inevitable. The unelected and unaccountable Brussels elite is desperate to stop the sinking ship from going to the bottom. They are doing what they can to stop Brexit. Just like they have interfered in Ireland, Denmark, Greece, and Italy. But they will not succeed. Italy’s economy and banking system is in a hopeless position and the coming crisis and default will have severe repercussions for French Banks, Spanish Banks, the ECB and thus the global financial system. That is one of the potential triggers for the next global crisis which will be much bigger than the 2007-9 one. I discussed some of these issues in an audio interview on King World News last week.
A FINAL HURRAH AND A GLOBAL CRISIS
The inevitable global financial crisis is approaching fast. A final hurrah in stocks is still possible. That can finish abruptly or it can take a few months. Once it finishes we will see the biggest secular bear market in history.
Gold’s next move up is not far away. There is still a short time when gold and silver can be bought at reasonable prices. But we are already experiencing supply problems in silver. So there is not much time left to acquire proper wealth protection in physical precious metals. Once the paper shorts run for cover and ask for delivery, there will be no metals available. I would advise investors not to wait for that moment.




Egon von Greyerz
Founder and Managing Partner
Matterhorn Asset Management
Zurich, Switzerland
Phone: +41 44 213 62 45

Matterhorn Asset Management’s global client base strategically stores an important part of their wealth in Switzerland in physical gold and silver outside the banking system. Matterhorn Asset Management is pleased to deliver a unique and exceptional service to our highly esteemed wealth preservation clientele in over 60 countries.
GoldSwitzerland.com
Contact Us

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Wellsburg

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#3
So how many ounces of silver should a body have??
I suggest you should own your body weight in silver, plus the weight of your spouse. That should be about 6,000 ounces as an average.

That should be a safe number to carry much of your wealth through the currency wars and into the next BS digital system they will globally launch.

How's that for an honest answer?
 

Ebie

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#4
"The inevitable global financial crisis is approaching fast. A final hurrah in stocks is still possible. That can finish abruptly or it can take a few months. "
=>When?
"Gold’s next move up is not far away. There is still a short time when gold and silver can be bought at reasonable prices. But we are already experiencing supply problems in silver. So there is not much time left to acquire proper wealth protection in physical precious metals."
=> When. Gold is down.
 

CrimsonGuardJay

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#5
I suggest you should own your body weight in silver, plus the weight of your spouse. That should be about 6,000 ounces as an average.

That should be a safe number to carry much of your wealth through the currency wars and into the next BS digital system they will globally launch.

How's that for an honest answer?
Im 180 pounds, so like 2600 troy ounces. Thats not enough... need way more than that.
 

ttazzman

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#6
1 ton ~ 30,000ozt.......... or 1/2 ton ag & 200ozt Au..........or ????
 

Fatrat

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#7
While having Gold and Silver is good, it is only part of your needs, blue steel, lead, and brass too.
 

gliddenralston

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#10
Trump, who normally is as far from a socialist as you can get, is nevertheless applying MMT to the US economy by continuing to spend money that doesn’t exist. His tax cutting and uber-spending, combined with the imminent downturn of the US economy, will soon put the US in the same category as countries like Italy. That is what is called the basket case category where default will be unavoidable
Trump, claims to be against socialism, while at the same time being one of its biggest recipience of socialism as all politicians are.!!!
 

Ebie

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#12
OK. So dollar collapse in 6 years or less. At least he is gives an estimate.
That is better than just saying "soon".
 

ttazzman

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#14
How can the dollar become worthless AND the stock market crash, at the same time?
I agree ...and this is a great discussion to have.....i have not totally developed a opinion on such......some thoughts..

#1 all boats rise and fall when the sea level (liquidity) pool rises and falls
#2 companies have $ denominated assetts ....value of cash would fall....value of real property would gain
#3 wages not keeping up with commodity costs would lower consumer spending variety wise IE who can afford a new car when your spending all your money on food
#4 dollar crashing value theoreticly boost cost of imports and limit the trade deficit ...more use of domestic goods
#5 multinational companies would suffer due to in appropriate allocation of assets.....IE off shore factories might quickly be non-competitive vs domestic factories ....think Nike and Apple
#6 i have no clarity on how it would affect banking (a large component of banking and financing of companies)

would love to hear other thoughts ...pro n con
 

anywoundedduck

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#15
It's nice to have 6,000 pounds for each person. Most cannot afford it, but even a couple,hundred ounces of silver bullion, safely hidden and protected, will help get you through the worst of times.
When fiat becomes worthless, I expect Silver to return to at least its intrinsic value of olden times. A Roman soldier was paid one ounce of silver for ten work days. So to be generous calculate every day of the year comes to 36 ounces per year.
When TSHTF, silver will probably be worth much more
So don't be snookered into thinking I need much more than I am able.
Start stacking one ounce at a time. Every ounce should get you ten days down the road or more, when the time comes.
Stack, stack, stack!
 
Last edited:

Ebie

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#16
The stock prices of well managed companies will tend to rise in a general inflation--but there are still other possibilities.

I agree ...and this is a great discussion to have.....i have not totally developed a opinion on such......some thoughts..

#1 all boats rise and fall when the sea level (liquidity) pool rises and falls
#2 companies have $ denominated assetts ....value of cash would fall....value of real property would gain
#3 wages not keeping up with commodity costs would lower consumer spending variety wise IE who can afford a new car when your spending all your money on food
#4 dollar crashing value theoreticly boost cost of imports and limit the trade deficit ...more use of domestic goods
#5 multinational companies would suffer due to in appropriate allocation of assets.....IE off shore factories might quickly be non-competitive vs domestic factories ....think Nike and Apple
#6 i have no clarity on how it would affect banking (a large component of banking and financing of companies)

would love to hear other thoughts ...pro n con
 

CopperSilverGold

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#17
It's nice to have 6,000 pounds for each person. Most cannot afford it, but even a couple,hundred ounces of silver bullion, safely hidden and protected, will help get you through the worst of times.
When fiat becomes worthless, I expect Silver to return to at least its intrinsic value of olden times. A Roman soldier was paid one ounce of silver for ten work days. So to be generous calculate every day of the year comes to 36 ounces per year.
When TSHTF, probably much more.
So don't be snookered into thinking I need much more than I am able.
Start stacking one ounce at a time. Every ounce should get you ten days down the road or more, when the time comes.
Stack, stack, stack!
I have set a modest goal of 10 ounces per month for 2019, but hope to exceed that.