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Start thinking about silver before it becomes popular again

Scorpio

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#1
Start thinking about silver before it becomes popular again
Simon Black




In 663 BC, King Ashurbanipal of the Assyrian Empire invaded Egypt and sacked the city of Waset (located in modern day Luxor on the Nile River).


Ashurbanipal vanquished the city, purportedly seizing more than 75 metric tons of silver for his personal collection.


At the time in the ancient world, the prevailing ratio between gold and silver was 1:2. In other words, 75 metric tons (= 75,000 kilograms) of silver was worth 37,500 kilograms of gold, equal to $1.76 billion in today’s money.


That 1:2 gold/silver ratio had held for thousands of years across Persia, Mesopotamia, and Ancient Egypt, possibly since as early as 3,000 BC.


But over time it has changed periodically.


By the time of Alexander the Great in the 300s BC, the Gold/Silver ratio had shifted to 1:13. Mining techniques had advanced at that point, so the ancients were able to produce higher volumes of silver than ever before.


Under Julius Caesar in Ancient Rome, one ounce of gold was worth 12 ounces of silver. In the time of Mohammed and the early days of the Islamic Caliphate in the 600s, the ratio was 1:16.


Even in the early history of the United States, the Mint and Coinage Act of 1792 established a gold/silver ratio 1:15.


(According to the law, one US dollar is defined as 1.604 grams of pure gold, or 24.1 grams of pure silver. So those pieces of paper in your wallet are not technically US dollars, but ‘Federal Reserve Notes’.)


In our modern times, the ratio average is around 55 ounces of silver per ounce of gold.


Much of this is due to continual improvements in mining techniques– it’s a lot easier to mine than it was 5,000 years ago, so the ratio is more indicative of the natural abundance of these metals in the Earth’s crust.


But the gold/silver ratio also fluctuates from time to time based on market conditions.


Gold is pretty unique; while there’s a fair amount of demand for gold from the jewelry industry, and a bit of gold used in industrial production, the key driver of gold demand is from investors, foreign governments, and central banks.


When times are tense, people buy gold and the price goes up.


And as we’ve been discussing, foreign central banks are starting to dump their US dollars for gold, scooping up hundreds of metric tons of the stuff.


But silver is different.


Less than 20% of silver demand is from investors– usually smaller, retail investors. Because it’s so much less expensive than gold, most foreign central banks and governments don’t even bother buying silver. They only buy gold.


The primary driver of silver demand is jewelry and technology; silver is used in a variety of industrial applications like batteries, water purification, semiconductors, and dental equipment.


This is an important distinction to understand: in a difficult economy, demand for silver from industry and jewelry will likely DECREASE, causing silver prices to fall.


With gold, on the other hand, a monetary crisis, trade dispute, war, etc. would likely cause gold prices to increase.


But don’t write off silver just yet.


The Gold/Silver ratio right now is around 1:84… that’s 84 ounces of silver per ounce of gold, close to an all-time high.


Over the past decade it’s been as low as 32 and as high as 93. So it stands to reason that a correction may be in order.


There is, of course, no fixed requirement that the gold/silver ratio maintain a certain level. It could go to 100… or even 1,000. Or go back to 1:15.


But just as I’ve been arguing for the last 12+ months that gold prices should be heading higher (and they’re more than 30% higher since I started writing this), silver could also move quite a bit higher.


First– while investor demand isn’t the primary driver, it would be foolish to dismiss this factor.


Investor demand is currently low. According to data from the US Mint, the average number of one-ounce Silver Eagle coins sold over the last three years is HALF as much as the average sales from the previous eight years.


Bottom line, investors aren’t as interested in silver as they used to be. And that’s usually a good time to start thinking about buying an asset.


Simultaneously, central banks around the world keep slashing rates and printing money.


Even in the United States, which is supposed to have a ‘tremendous’ economy, the central bank has turned once again to Quantitative Easing, and recently announced that they would print more than $60 billion per month to buy US government bonds.


Another key fact in this analysis is that silver production is falling.


Most of the gold that is mined ends up sitting in a vault somewhere, or in someone’s jewelry drawer. So as mining companies pull more gold out of the ground each year, that supply increases.


But with silver, most of the silver mined this year will be used up in industrial production. So the companies that make fancy tableware or dentists’ drills will need new supplies of silver next year in order to manufacture more product.


If those companies are growing, they’ll need even more silver… so, as long as the global economy generally keeps growing, industrial silver demand should keep growing.


But silver production is actually falling… so silver prices should increase as a result.


And because central banks are simultaneously printing tons of money, prices could increase even more due to renewed investor interest.


Like I said, silver is pretty much dead right now. US Mint sales figures show there’s very little investor demand. That makes now a great time to start thinking about silver– BEFORE it becomes popular again.


And to continue learning how to ensure you thrive no matter what happens next in the world , I encourage you to download our free Perfect Plan B Guide.

Because... If you live, work, bank, invest, own a business, and hold your assets all in just one country, you are putting all of your eggs in one basket.

You’re making a high-stakes bet that everything is going to be ok in that one country — forever.

All it would take is for the economy to tank, a natural disaster to hit, or the political system to go into turmoil and you could lose everything—your money, your assets, and possibly even your freedom.

Luckily, there are a number of simple, logical steps you can take to protect yourself from these obvious risks:


No Brainer Strategies to Ensure You Thrive No Matter What Happens Next


  • Invest outside the mainstream and make 12% with minimal risk

  • Protect your assets and become invincible to financial crisis and frivolous lawsuits

  • Legally slash your tax bill up to $1.2 million each year

  • Obtain a valuable second passport… for free





Learn about these and many more strategies in our free Perfect Plan B Guide.









Hi. I’m Simon Black– founder of Sovereign Man, international entrepreneur, investor, permanent traveler, and a free man.



On average, I travel to over 40 countries per year…doing business, investing, exploring emerging markets, and establishing and maintaining important relationships.


Just to give you a brief snapshot, some of the things I’ve done recently include…


Starting my own private investment bank
Negotiating an eight figure financing deal with one of the largest financial institutions in the world
Meeting with the former President of Colombia at his home
Leading an investor group to take a controlling stake in a public company
And speaking on stage to thousands of people alongside Rich Dad, Poor Dad author, Robert Kiyosaki
Everything I learn from these valuable experiences is passed on to readers of Sovereign Man in our free newsletter, Notes from the Field, and in our highly actionable and educational premium products.




http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/10.19/popular.html
 

Strawboss

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#2
Yup...we are in full agreement on this one...
 

Buck

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#3
Yeah, but, increase the spot price by a dollar or two and watch how many silver eagles get sold back into the markets...

Like gold, silver eagles are not going to go anywhere but from hand to hand, and whenever some might be required, simply raise the spot price and lots will get shaken out of peoples safes, pockets, hands

There are tons of silver sitting in safes around the globe...
 

d-lod

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#4
Start thinking about silver before it becomes popular again
Simon Black




In 663 BC, King Ashurbanipal of the Assyrian Empire invaded Egypt and sacked the city of Waset (located in modern day Luxor on the Nile River).


Ashurbanipal vanquished the city, purportedly seizing more than 75 metric tons of silver for his personal collection.


At the time in the ancient world, the prevailing ratio between gold and silver was 1:2. In other words, 75 metric tons (= 75,000 kilograms) of silver was worth 37,500 kilograms of gold, equal to $1.76 billion in today’s money.


That 1:2 gold/silver ratio had held for thousands of years across Persia, Mesopotamia, and Ancient Egypt, possibly since as early as 3,000 BC.


But over time it has changed periodically.


By the time of Alexander the Great in the 300s BC, the Gold/Silver ratio had shifted to 1:13. Mining techniques had advanced at that point, so the ancients were able to produce higher volumes of silver than ever before.


Under Julius Caesar in Ancient Rome, one ounce of gold was worth 12 ounces of silver. In the time of Mohammed and the early days of the Islamic Caliphate in the 600s, the ratio was 1:16.


Even in the early history of the United States, the Mint and Coinage Act of 1792 established a gold/silver ratio 1:15.


(According to the law, one US dollar is defined as 1.604 grams of pure gold, or 24.1 grams of pure silver. So those pieces of paper in your wallet are not technically US dollars, but ‘Federal Reserve Notes’.)


In our modern times, the ratio average is around 55 ounces of silver per ounce of gold.


Much of this is due to continual improvements in mining techniques– it’s a lot easier to mine than it was 5,000 years ago, so the ratio is more indicative of the natural abundance of these metals in the Earth’s crust.


But the gold/silver ratio also fluctuates from time to time based on market conditions.


Gold is pretty unique; while there’s a fair amount of demand for gold from the jewelry industry, and a bit of gold used in industrial production, the key driver of gold demand is from investors, foreign governments, and central banks.


When times are tense, people buy gold and the price goes up.


And as we’ve been discussing, foreign central banks are starting to dump their US dollars for gold, scooping up hundreds of metric tons of the stuff.


But silver is different.


Less than 20% of silver demand is from investors– usually smaller, retail investors. Because it’s so much less expensive than gold, most foreign central banks and governments don’t even bother buying silver. They only buy gold.


The primary driver of silver demand is jewelry and technology; silver is used in a variety of industrial applications like batteries, water purification, semiconductors, and dental equipment.


This is an important distinction to understand: in a difficult economy, demand for silver from industry and jewelry will likely DECREASE, causing silver prices to fall.


With gold, on the other hand, a monetary crisis, trade dispute, war, etc. would likely cause gold prices to increase.


But don’t write off silver just yet.


The Gold/Silver ratio right now is around 1:84… that’s 84 ounces of silver per ounce of gold, close to an all-time high.


Over the past decade it’s been as low as 32 and as high as 93. So it stands to reason that a correction may be in order.


There is, of course, no fixed requirement that the gold/silver ratio maintain a certain level. It could go to 100… or even 1,000. Or go back to 1:15.


But just as I’ve been arguing for the last 12+ months that gold prices should be heading higher (and they’re more than 30% higher since I started writing this), silver could also move quite a bit higher.


First– while investor demand isn’t the primary driver, it would be foolish to dismiss this factor.


Investor demand is currently low. According to data from the US Mint, the average number of one-ounce Silver Eagle coins sold over the last three years is HALF as much as the average sales from the previous eight years.


Bottom line, investors aren’t as interested in silver as they used to be. And that’s usually a good time to start thinking about buying an asset.


Simultaneously, central banks around the world keep slashing rates and printing money.


Even in the United States, which is supposed to have a ‘tremendous’ economy, the central bank has turned once again to Quantitative Easing, and recently announced that they would print more than $60 billion per month to buy US government bonds.


Another key fact in this analysis is that silver production is falling.


Most of the gold that is mined ends up sitting in a vault somewhere, or in someone’s jewelry drawer. So as mining companies pull more gold out of the ground each year, that supply increases.


But with silver, most of the silver mined this year will be used up in industrial production. So the companies that make fancy tableware or dentists’ drills will need new supplies of silver next year in order to manufacture more product.


If those companies are growing, they’ll need even more silver… so, as long as the global economy generally keeps growing, industrial silver demand should keep growing.


But silver production is actually falling… so silver prices should increase as a result.


And because central banks are simultaneously printing tons of money, prices could increase even more due to renewed investor interest.


Like I said, silver is pretty much dead right now. US Mint sales figures show there’s very little investor demand. That makes now a great time to start thinking about silver– BEFORE it becomes popular again.


And to continue learning how to ensure you thrive no matter what happens next in the world , I encourage you to download our free Perfect Plan B Guide.

Because... If you live, work, bank, invest, own a business, and hold your assets all in just one country, you are putting all of your eggs in one basket.

You’re making a high-stakes bet that everything is going to be ok in that one country — forever.

All it would take is for the economy to tank, a natural disaster to hit, or the political system to go into turmoil and you could lose everything—your money, your assets, and possibly even your freedom.

Luckily, there are a number of simple, logical steps you can take to protect yourself from these obvious risks:


No Brainer Strategies to Ensure You Thrive No Matter What Happens Next


  • Invest outside the mainstream and make 12% with minimal risk

  • Protect your assets and become invincible to financial crisis and frivolous lawsuits

  • Legally slash your tax bill up to $1.2 million each year

  • Obtain a valuable second passport… for free





Learn about these and many more strategies in our free Perfect Plan B Guide.









Hi. I’m Simon Black– founder of Sovereign Man, international entrepreneur, investor, permanent traveler, and a free man.



On average, I travel to over 40 countries per year…doing business, investing, exploring emerging markets, and establishing and maintaining important relationships.


Just to give you a brief snapshot, some of the things I’ve done recently include…


Starting my own private investment bank
Negotiating an eight figure financing deal with one of the largest financial institutions in the world
Meeting with the former President of Colombia at his home
Leading an investor group to take a controlling stake in a public company
And speaking on stage to thousands of people alongside Rich Dad, Poor Dad author, Robert Kiyosaki
Everything I learn from these valuable experiences is passed on to readers of Sovereign Man in our free newsletter, Notes from the Field, and in our highly actionable and educational premium products.




http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/10.19/popular.html

Having silver will be like owning cheap gold..........................
 

GOLDBRIX

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#7
But with silver, most of the silver mined this year will be used up in industrial production. So the companies that make fancy tableware or dentists’ drills will need new supplies of silver next year in order to manufacture more product.
FYI there really are no true silver mines left. Most silver now is by-product of other metal mining, and that is getting less and less and harder to find at rates that are economically feasible. Deeper, Hotter and Harder to find.
From my past investing experience.
 

the_shootist

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#10
Yeah, but, increase the spot price by a dollar or two and watch how many silver eagles get sold back into the markets...

Like gold, silver eagles are not going to go anywhere but from hand to hand, and whenever some might be required, simply raise the spot price and lots will get shaken out of peoples safes, pockets, hands

There are tons of silver sitting in safes around the globe...
There are tons of FRNs sitting in people's safes too. Which one would you rather have?
 

GOLDBRIX

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#11
There are tons of FRNs sitting in people's safes too. Which one would you rather have?
Go heavily armed and take it all !!
:robber: "Esta es un robbo"
 

the_shootist

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#12
Start thinking about silver before it becomes popular again

Other then that one time it spiked to ~$50/oz when has it ever been that popular over the last 20 years? It rarely, if ever has reached or exceeded $20/oz.

I know I know, I'm the negative Nanny in the group. I'm sure those having a couple of thousand ozs of silver stacked away still has faith. I still have faith but not at all sure about the 'Silver to the Moon' predictions.
 
Last edited:

Strawboss

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#13
FYI there really are no true silver mines left. Most silver now is by-product of other metal mining, and that is getting less and less and harder to find at rates that are economically feasible. Deeper, Hotter and Harder to find.
From my past investing experience.
First Majestic my friend...

AG
 

GOLDBRIX

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#14
First Majestic my friend...AG
"...Total production (First Majestic) in 2018 reached 22.2 million ounces of silver equivalents, including 11.7 ounces of pure silver. According to the company, 2019 production from its seven mines is anticipated to be between 24.7 and 27.5 million ounces of silver equivalents, including 14.2 to 15.8 million ounces of pure silver.[2] ".

"silver equivalents" - are other minerals mined, sold, and that value is converted to the price of silver.
Using the figures they offer "pure silver" is about one third of total mineral production.
When I held Great Panther (GPR), another Canadian mining Mexico, I'd see similar in their reports

Check their prospectus you'll see Zinc or Lead out put numbers higher than "pure silver" and there will be a gold by-product number too. All those bring down the actual costs for mining their silver.
Otherwise silver mining would be cost prohibitive.
 

Strawboss

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#15
"...Total production (First Majestic) in 2018 reached 22.2 million ounces of silver equivalents, including 11.7 ounces of pure silver. According to the company, 2019 production from its seven mines is anticipated to be between 24.7 and 27.5 million ounces of silver equivalents, including 14.2 to 15.8 million ounces of pure silver.[2] ".

"silver equivalents" - are other minerals mined, sold, and that value is converted to the price of silver.
Using the figures they offer "pure silver" is about one third of total mineral production.
When I held Great Panther (GPR), another Canadian mining Mexico, I'd see similar in their reports

Check their prospectus you'll see Zinc or Lead out put numbers higher than "pure silver" and there will be a gold by-product number too. All those bring down the actual costs for mining their silver.
Otherwise silver mining would be cost prohibitive.
There really are almost no "pure" silver mining companies because of how little of the stuff there is out there to be mined...

Mostly - silver comes as a byproduct of other types of mining...

With that as our reality - the closest we can get is a company like First Majestic (AG)...
 

D-FENZ

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#16
I got some silver bullets today.
I fell for the boolits as soon as I saw them in my dealer's smelter pile. It seems so strange to me that people bring in this type of stuff to sell him for under spot. And he just normally sends the stuff off to the smelter. Crazy. I have a running offer to buy any cool stuff he gets. A couple of years ago he had 10 of the 1 ouncers like yours so I had to have them. They're a little rough- almost looks like they had been chambered or something. But like everything else, they just went on the scale for 20 cents over spot. Later I found the 10 ouncer online and well- paid too much but had to have it too.

Among some of the other 'cool' finds were these Apollo medallions- again, 20 cents over spot. Bent some copper wire to make some display racks and set them up on a shelf for display along with the bullets. Now I'm all set for that 'moon shot'.

IMG_4519[1].JPG


I got some kinda ugly but huge (saucer sized), silver Jimmy Carter presidential commemorative plates from the dealer too. Not sure what they weigh. Probably should dig those up soon and get them ready to sell. JC is 95 and just broke his hip. And the silver price just broke out of a bullish looking triangle. Won't be long now.
 

GOLDBRIX

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#17
There really are almost no "pure" silver mining companies because of how little of the stuff there is out there to be mined...

Mostly - silver comes as a byproduct of other types of mining...

With that as our reality - the closest we can get is a company like First Majestic (AG)...
That's pretty much I said in Post #7.
GPR is another like First Majestic.
I got out because their ore & production transports were being targeted by Mexican Gangs
 

GOLDZILLA

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#19
They could be silver bullets.
 

Professur

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#20
The name of the site isn't Silver is Money ... is it?
 

Professur

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#23
Go with gold sovereigns. Best coins anywhere
 

newmisty

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#24
I was on the posts page and read this thread title as, "Start thinking before it becomes popular again."

Sorry, I'll run along now.
 

Professur

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#26
History. It's the most recognized gold coin on the planet.
 

Scorpio

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#28
No but a silver round would be more affordable than gold but if the decision was to go with gold I would at least buy an ounce.
Hey damoc, sometimes I do wonder if the producer still has those dies from way back when.

Creating the dies was relatively expensive, yet they typically saved them all for future use. Not sure if ours would have been too specialized and eventually tossed after a few years.

As after those, then it is just a question of how much to purchase on the front side for them to do the job.

Whether it is 2000 rds min, or 5000, not sure.

But if it was 5000 for instance, they always had to purchase the blanks, so expected to be paid up front for whatever their min was.

Then if I remember, the price changed per min order, 1000 would be x over spot, 2000 would be y over spot, and so on. Yet, the lower runs were quite expensive accordingly.

you could start a thread on it and see if there was some serious interest in it like we did back in the day????
 

Zed

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#29
I never stopped.
 

the_shootist

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#30
No but a silver round would be more affordable than gold but if the decision was to go with gold I would at least buy an ounce.
I once heard the comparison of stacking gold and silver as considering silver your checking account and gold as your savings account if you ever needed to use it as money! I have invested accordingly.
 

the_shootist

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Hey damoc, sometimes I do wonder if the producer still has those dies from way back when.

Creating the dies was relatively expensive, yet they typically saved them all for future use. Not sure if ours would have been too specialized and eventually tossed after a few years.

As after those, then it is just a question of how much to purchase on the front side for them to do the job.

Whether it is 2000 rds min, or 5000, not sure.

But if it was 5000 for instance, they always had to purchase the blanks, so expected to be paid up front for whatever their min was.

Then if I remember, the price changed per min order, 1000 would be x over spot, 2000 would be y over spot, and so on. Yet, the lower runs were quite expensive accordingly.

you could start a thread on it and see if there was some serious interest in it like we did back in the day????
Count me in!
 

Bottom Feeder

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#32
BTW — FYI

gold
Crustal abundance (ppm) 0.0013

Silver
Crustal abundance (ppm) 0.055

Ag/Au ratio = 42.30769230769231:1
 

D-FENZ

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#33
BTW — FYI

gold
Crustal abundance (ppm) 0.0013

Silver
Crustal abundance (ppm) 0.055

Ag/Au ratio = 42.30769230769231:1
There are lots of elements with lower abundance than either gold or silver and yet much cheaper. Without the demand side of the supply/demand stats, the relative crustal abundance figures are meaningless in determining price.
 

Bottom Feeder

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#34
There are lots of elements with lower abundance than either gold or silver and yet much cheaper. Without the demand side of the supply/demand stats, the relative crustal abundance figures are meaningless in determining price.
Actually, fenzer, I was just publishing the facts about abundance of the two substances and the nominal ratio found in the Earth's crust. I was not trying to make a statement about pricing.

So, here's back at ya: the supply/demand statistics have nothing to do with price discovery any more in this manipulated PM market.

BF
 

D-FENZ

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#35
Actually, fenzer, I was just publishing the facts about abundance of the two substances and the nominal ratio found in the Earth's crust. I was not trying to make a statement about pricing.

So, here's back at ya: the supply/demand statistics have nothing to do with price discovery any more in this manipulated PM market.

BF
I wasn't trying to pick on you BF. Since you posted those stats in this thread I assumed that you were simply repeating the old, worn rationale for a higher silver price based on the relative abundance.

My apologies.
 

Treasure Searcher

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#37
Silver will be popular to hold when:
1. One or more currencies are to be backed by physical silver (I know, don't hold your breath for that to happen, with our fiat currency world.)
2. The rich see it as a store of wealth. If the rich (millionaires, billionaires, pension funds, trusts, etc.) decide that they want to convert some of their
fiat currency into physical silver, like they do in physical assets (real estate, art, etc.).
3. Financial institutions would readily consider it equity/collateral for loan(s). Out of curiosity, I asked a banker if he considered physical silver as
collateral as a loan. He said "no".
4. The paper silver market finally collapses.
 
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#38
Silver will be popular to hold when:
1. One or more currencies are to be backed by physical silver (I know, don't hold your breath for that to happen, with our fiat currency world.)
2. The rich see it as a store of wealth. If the rich (millionaires, billionaires, pension funds, trusts, etc.) decide that they want to convert some of their
fiat currency into physical silver, like they do in physical assets (real estate, art, etc.).
3. Financial institutions would readily consider it equity/collateral for loan(s). Out of curiosity, I asked a banker if he considered physical silver as
collateral as a loan. He said "no".
4. The paper silver market finally collapses.
I heard Silver Eagles could be used as collateral for loans. Is that definitely not the case?
 

GOLDBRIX

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#39
There are lots of elements with lower abundance than either gold or silver and yet much cheaper. Without the demand side of the supply/demand stats, the relative crustal abundance figures are meaningless in determining price.
Agree, plus there are tons and tons of gold and silver in the seas and oceans. We do not have the technology to get it economically. Even the Annuaki had the technology but not the patience the water tech. required.
 

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Platinum Bling
Platinum Bling
Joined
Apr 1, 2010
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#40
I heard Silver Eagles could be used as collateral for loans. Is that definitely not the case?
I would imagine that would depend on the lender. Some bankers may consider consider it equity and others may consider it to be a barbarous relic!