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The Lunatic Fringe - Trading talk.
- Thread starter Zed
- Start date
Just read the thread, no one was bulliah $.
I also posted the drop to C. Then at C, Not a soul was bullish dollar, here or anywhere for that matter. Again, anyone can post 10 years in advance with no time frames that dollar will see blue skies 100+ in a crisis..I'm talking about the precision, the wiggles.
Month Jan 2018 candle, the bottom
C turn posted in the moment bottom
I also posted the drop to C. Then at C, Not a soul was bullish dollar, here or anywhere for that matter. Again, anyone can post 10 years in advance with no time frames that dollar will see blue skies 100+ in a crisis..I'm talking about the precision, the wiggles.
Month Jan 2018 candle, the bottom
Dollar setup.....no comment
One of my first posts in the thread. Zed (or someone on his behalf) showed up to let me know it's already his long standing call for a dollar blow off all those years ago. It's a special, long.standing, endless time frame call for him. I get it. Again, What i was referring to was the wiggles, exact precise pattern, starting before drop to C and from C. Show me any post that was bearish from peak down to C and bullish at C besides mine. Hint: there's neither, i just read the thead back.
Oh, and party like it's 1999 baby, then $ wile e coyote moment
Oh, and party like it's 1999 baby, then $ wile e coyote moment
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No doubt about that, and it gets plenty of great contributions from all corners, but at heart this thread it is fueled by Zed's incisive take on macro economics.
I'm not Zed, but I have spent enough time on the lunatic fringe to know that his thing really isn't day trading. He does his portfolio management and doesn't spend a whole lot of time talking specifics about it. What he does do, is dissect the current multilayered economic winds and tries to break things down in a clear fashion that helps shed light on how the various pieces fit together.
There are a lot of complementary approaches here, which is what really makes this place work.
I'm not Zed, but I have spent enough time on the lunatic fringe to know that his thing really isn't day trading. He does his portfolio management and doesn't spend a whole lot of time talking specifics about it. What he does do, is dissect the current multilayered economic winds and tries to break things down in a clear fashion that helps shed light on how the various pieces fit together.
There are a lot of complementary approaches here, which is what really makes this place work.
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this article sums it up, Feds have reacted too fast and too soon in my opinion. Wonder if a freefall after the $2.2 trillion package is passed either this Friday or this weekend.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ive-never-ever-ever-seen-anything
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ive-never-ever-ever-seen-anything
Again BULLSHIT.
It's a macro call that wasn't popular at the time and hasn't done too badly, it will have a logical end point. Since my call I've seen more and more people in the institutional space come to the same conclusion. That much has been gratifying, it is not very often you are early with a big theme call like that. More often than not it's a call someone else makes that causes my 'penny to drop' and I share it if it makes sense to me.
It isn't "endless", we are just not there yet. USD up first then down if something significant and fundamental doesn't change as a result of the crisis that a very high USD will produce. This is where we MAY see systemic change "for our own good". So the USD big bad bear may never get here, it may be a currency reset with a new crypto issued. I really don't know about that and I think that we are probably still to early for society to make that step. I lean toward the USD bear, but it will become a race to the bottom with competing currencies so I don't see that as long term call, more a series of mid term up and down waves as various strategies are employed to lower currency values around the world.
Anyway, gold up, usd with it... still in play @ the least I think. I can't see the end of it on a macro basis yet... I thought that 120 was the target years ago, I now think that its higher, potentially much higher. I think that the stress really starts to ramp up @ 120 and that is where you will see big steps taken to halt things.
For now I think that the Euro area's 'issues' will drive this to its high... so watch them for some radical moves surrounding banking and currency.
2c
FWIW
and as always JMO.
It's a macro call that wasn't popular at the time and hasn't done too badly, it will have a logical end point. Since my call I've seen more and more people in the institutional space come to the same conclusion. That much has been gratifying, it is not very often you are early with a big theme call like that. More often than not it's a call someone else makes that causes my 'penny to drop' and I share it if it makes sense to me.
It isn't "endless", we are just not there yet. USD up first then down if something significant and fundamental doesn't change as a result of the crisis that a very high USD will produce. This is where we MAY see systemic change "for our own good". So the USD big bad bear may never get here, it may be a currency reset with a new crypto issued. I really don't know about that and I think that we are probably still to early for society to make that step. I lean toward the USD bear, but it will become a race to the bottom with competing currencies so I don't see that as long term call, more a series of mid term up and down waves as various strategies are employed to lower currency values around the world.
Anyway, gold up, usd with it... still in play @ the least I think. I can't see the end of it on a macro basis yet... I thought that 120 was the target years ago, I now think that its higher, potentially much higher. I think that the stress really starts to ramp up @ 120 and that is where you will see big steps taken to halt things.
For now I think that the Euro area's 'issues' will drive this to its high... so watch them for some radical moves surrounding banking and currency.
2c
FWIW
and as always JMO.
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Short covering on re-balancing into month end. A lot of these funds have rules that they just apply regardless of market conditions, under current conditions they are buying stocks. They are "brain dead" formulaic responses tot he market but there may be enough volume to chase the shorts out of positions which will make it a hard and fast rally.
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A change in trend requires a lower low, right?
Perhaps what we are seeing transpire is the 1st low - followed by a rally that fails to make a new high - followed by a lower low...
Gotta happen at some point, right?
Truth be told - we are all guessing at this juncture - trying to figure out if a GSR of almost 130 is the high...
130.
(Insert Twilight Zone music here....)
Perhaps what we are seeing transpire is the 1st low - followed by a rally that fails to make a new high - followed by a lower low...
Gotta happen at some point, right?
Truth be told - we are all guessing at this juncture - trying to figure out if a GSR of almost 130 is the high...
130.
(Insert Twilight Zone music here....)
They will buy it.
L@@k at what you have to do to 'invade' our country or hold it. It's a logistical nightmare of the highest order and before you got too far you'd have the USA on your back.
Taking it any other way would make it the most expensive gold on the planet!
China wants our resources period, end of story... but buying it works so much better simply because we are cost effective diggers!
As for secure... if they are not operating then there is no gold business worldwide, everything would be shut down and you'd have other things to worry about. Ensuring that the mint operates and is trusted is a top priority for the WA gov. To do anything to that reputation would destroy a big $$$$ earner for the state. Both sides of politics will make sure that it operates and delivers if it is at all possible to do so.
Frankly it is about the last mint on the planet you should be concerned about.
L@@k at what you have to do to 'invade' our country or hold it. It's a logistical nightmare of the highest order and before you got too far you'd have the USA on your back.
Taking it any other way would make it the most expensive gold on the planet!
China wants our resources period, end of story... but buying it works so much better simply because we are cost effective diggers!
As for secure... if they are not operating then there is no gold business worldwide, everything would be shut down and you'd have other things to worry about. Ensuring that the mint operates and is trusted is a top priority for the WA gov. To do anything to that reputation would destroy a big $$$$ earner for the state. Both sides of politics will make sure that it operates and delivers if it is at all possible to do so.
Frankly it is about the last mint on the planet you should be concerned about.
Could just be the consolidation playing out.
However, if it fails then its extra bearish for the ratio as there will be more broken expectations behind the trade.
I can't conceive that we got to the number we got to let alone higher... but its possible on that chart, in fact more probable for now. 144 is on the table, which is gob-smackingly epic, but there you have it.
144 could prove to be the divergent move into a high. It could be off the back of a strong gold move and lagging silver. That may be a good thing for silver ultimately.
However, if it fails then its extra bearish for the ratio as there will be more broken expectations behind the trade.
I can't conceive that we got to the number we got to let alone higher... but its possible on that chart, in fact more probable for now. 144 is on the table, which is gob-smackingly epic, but there you have it.
144 could prove to be the divergent move into a high. It could be off the back of a strong gold move and lagging silver. That may be a good thing for silver ultimately.
High Pole
The high pole warning is given when a chart rises above a previous high by at least 3 boxes, before reversing to give back at least 50 percent of the rise. The reversal implies that the demand that was making the prices rise has given way to supply pressure. The pattern is a warning that lower prices could be seen in the future.
The high pole warning is given when a chart rises above a previous high by at least 3 boxes, before reversing to give back at least 50 percent of the rise. The reversal implies that the demand that was making the prices rise has given way to supply pressure. The pattern is a warning that lower prices could be seen in the future.