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The Lunatic Fringe - Trading talk.
- Thread starter Zed
- Start date
AuAg down tomorrow...
LOL. Yup. Wide open spaces lots of desert and coastline with not a hell of a lot to speak of out there. All in all it's just a really tough country to get a toehold in. You need a massive land base force to hold it successfully.
Yes.... but it's a ratio. Not a stock with too much long leverage.
Just a note for anyone reading the thread that doesn't know me. I think that its a small group and most do know me, but regardless...
1. Australian based, as such I trade our local markets for fun and profit... it is all I do.
2. I believe that success in the markets is mostly due to back office 'risk management'
3. I'm not trying to be Mr. Perfect and pick every trade correctly. I don't care what your system is if you bat over 70% you'd be richer than god if you manage risk well.
4. IMO Anyone claiming a really high win rate is most probably a liar. I'm probably closer to the 50% mark, mebe 60%.
5. I trade mid to long term - it suits my lifestyle, temperament and market access.
Given I believe that risk management is key to success making short term calls on specific stocks when there is a chance people reading will trade on it isn't such a good thing to do. IMO you must own the risk and the process while understanding your trading temperament before placing your money in the market. When you take full responsibility for that then you might be ready to trade. Following anyone's calls blindly is a path to failure, I'm not going to try to temp anyone down that path. I do what I do win/lose/draw, so long as it is just impacting me my conscience is clear.
So..... from me you will get broader background stuff on the things that effect gold and silver. That's the overlap in interest here, I will point out what I see and believe but I'm not going to make open/close trading calls. That is up to you. Sure I will do some basic T/A stuff, price projections etc on Gold, Silver, USD, the ratio and mebe bonds but that isn't my trading system and that isn't always reflective of what I do. Never forget that I am trading in AUD on Australian markets and that the world looks different through that lens.
I'm not here for dick measuring or a pissing contest so if we head off down that track I will exit stage left.
All that said I think that this last few weeks has most probably kicked off a depression. I wish you all well and I'd suggest extreme caution in all dealings. This deflationary phase will drag on for a while IMO. Keep in mind more capital was destroyed in the post 1929 markets than in the initial drop. While Livermore made it big in 29, he was bankrupt by 34 and committed suicide in 40. You don't want to make those sort of mistakes after getting the gold call correct. This will not be easy, most people will lose, that is just the nature of the beast.
Good Luck.
1. Australian based, as such I trade our local markets for fun and profit... it is all I do.
2. I believe that success in the markets is mostly due to back office 'risk management'
3. I'm not trying to be Mr. Perfect and pick every trade correctly. I don't care what your system is if you bat over 70% you'd be richer than god if you manage risk well.
4. IMO Anyone claiming a really high win rate is most probably a liar. I'm probably closer to the 50% mark, mebe 60%.
5. I trade mid to long term - it suits my lifestyle, temperament and market access.
Given I believe that risk management is key to success making short term calls on specific stocks when there is a chance people reading will trade on it isn't such a good thing to do. IMO you must own the risk and the process while understanding your trading temperament before placing your money in the market. When you take full responsibility for that then you might be ready to trade. Following anyone's calls blindly is a path to failure, I'm not going to try to temp anyone down that path. I do what I do win/lose/draw, so long as it is just impacting me my conscience is clear.
So..... from me you will get broader background stuff on the things that effect gold and silver. That's the overlap in interest here, I will point out what I see and believe but I'm not going to make open/close trading calls. That is up to you. Sure I will do some basic T/A stuff, price projections etc on Gold, Silver, USD, the ratio and mebe bonds but that isn't my trading system and that isn't always reflective of what I do. Never forget that I am trading in AUD on Australian markets and that the world looks different through that lens.
I'm not here for dick measuring or a pissing contest so if we head off down that track I will exit stage left.
All that said I think that this last few weeks has most probably kicked off a depression. I wish you all well and I'd suggest extreme caution in all dealings. This deflationary phase will drag on for a while IMO. Keep in mind more capital was destroyed in the post 1929 markets than in the initial drop. While Livermore made it big in 29, he was bankrupt by 34 and committed suicide in 40. You don't want to make those sort of mistakes after getting the gold call correct. This will not be easy, most people will lose, that is just the nature of the beast.
Good Luck.
Thanks for that synopsis... Had no idea!
Long term because of tax reasons? Here if you hold a stock for less than a year the taxes are not favorable. "Windfall" is what they call it. (I think I got that correct?)
I see the 'long term' as bit of a threat in that one could be 'stuck' - as the last few weeks have shown - had they bought a less than year ago.
Just my observations...
what kind of timeline is this?
Long term because of tax reasons? Here if you hold a stock for less than a year the taxes are not favorable. "Windfall" is what they call it. (I think I got that correct?)
I see the 'long term' as bit of a threat in that one could be 'stuck' - as the last few weeks have shown - had they bought a less than year ago.
Just my observations...
Weeks to months, some positions are held for years, rarely days... never intraday.
I've got a family to run so I'm less active since my wife has been restricted in her movement and abilities.
If I'm up big and it is near the 12 month mark then yes I get a discount in tax @ 12 months and that will factor into things.
Timing is everything... so yeah.
Core long term positions are so far in the green that it's not a concern... looking for a reason that I'm wrong on gold before they get the chop.
Other positions are rolled more easily.
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And if they beat the Kangaroos, there's no beating the Shielas.
- Joined
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@perry, most of the time markets just make me feel stupid. This economic system is insanely complex and quite capable of wrong footing almost anyone, certainly people with much better resources than I have fall foul of it. Trust me there is nothing elite about me, I'm simply going for 'enough' to get by given my circumstances. It's a boring so I share a little on the way, gives me something to do in between thoughts about "what next?"!!!
Currently I'm striving to stay as positive as I can... this shit is epic.
Good luck to you!
Oh yeah... I pity the invading army that has to deal with some of them!
It's a lesson in humility, market changes so we have to.
I think that this is a significant change but I expect to watch people try and trade it like they used to.
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I think this is an important point. Many things are in the process of taking a sharp turn. Economics/markets is just part of it. How we relearn societal norms about engaging and interacting with one another is also on the table.
This is going to require hanging on to core values/ideas and remembering to stay nimble in applying them to a rapidly changing landscape.
A lot is up for grabs here. I expect to see a boom in remote collaboration software and in related technologies once the worst is past. Distributed offices make sense, and the tech has been there for a while, we just needed a catalyst, I think we now have it. I expected the catalyst to be more cost based than disease motivated but....?
Yes, I think that we need to look to the future and what we do after gold has protected us from the worst of this crap storm. There will be opportunity to "get it right" and how humans interact remotely looks like a monty. This will open people eyes to what is possible.
I'm already seeing online choirs singing together without being together.... of all things!
Opinion: ‘There is no gold.’ Bullion dealers sell out in panic buying
109
Published: March 26, 2020 at 11:27 a.m. ET
By
Brett Arends
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/t...n-dealers-sell-out-in-panic-buying-2020-03-25
109
Published: March 26, 2020 at 11:27 a.m. ET
By
Brett Arends
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/t...n-dealers-sell-out-in-panic-buying-2020-03-25
- Joined
- Dec 14, 2010
- Messages
- 4,057
- Reaction score
- 4,713
Premiums for gold are close to $100/oz over spot dealer to dealer now.
People will start to "mine the Comex" soon... JMO
Deliveries should spike if the premium stays.
Gold, Germs, and Self-Preservation
The Interview · Featuring Kiril Sokoloff and Raoul Pal
Published on: March 26th, 2020
Duration: 54 minutes
Kiril Sokoloff, chairman and founder of 13D Global Strategy and Research, joins Raoul Pal, CEO and co-founder of Real Vision, to discuss the ongoing coronavirus pandemic and its long-term consequences on monetary policy, investing, and geopolitics. Pal and Sokoloff analyze how a protracted quarantine might slow economic activity to such a degree that central banks become more active than they ever have before, either by monetizing debt or by purchasing risk assets outright. The pair also explore how the crisis might affect the 2020 election, the practice of stock buybacks, and specific assets like oil, gold, and the Japanese Yen. Released March 26, 2020.
Link...
The Interview · Featuring Kiril Sokoloff and Raoul Pal
Published on: March 26th, 2020
Duration: 54 minutes
Kiril Sokoloff, chairman and founder of 13D Global Strategy and Research, joins Raoul Pal, CEO and co-founder of Real Vision, to discuss the ongoing coronavirus pandemic and its long-term consequences on monetary policy, investing, and geopolitics. Pal and Sokoloff analyze how a protracted quarantine might slow economic activity to such a degree that central banks become more active than they ever have before, either by monetizing debt or by purchasing risk assets outright. The pair also explore how the crisis might affect the 2020 election, the practice of stock buybacks, and specific assets like oil, gold, and the Japanese Yen. Released March 26, 2020.
Link...
So about those ag prices....like I was saying, that's how we get fucked next, no lube
https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN21E00L
https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN21E00L
The list of celebrity/famous people getting this virus is astounding and surreal...very surreal actually! It just doesn't seem to me to be the natural course of progression one would expect!
Not sure how accurate that report is. We're not seeing those prices locally. The chickens here seem to be laying just fine
That's nice, feel free to monitor ag prices, not talking about overnight obviously with the stock post
And of course the article is fake news, that was literally my point
