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The Lunatic Fringe - Trading talk.

JayDubya

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I didn't listen to the full video posted above, but didn't (pretty much) this same thing, on a somewhat smaller scale, take place in Europe over the summer with very little impact?

Why the jitters over this one? Is it simply THAT much larger in scale or is something else at play here?
 

Zed

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Zed

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I bought a motor home so I can bug out... me cheap? NEVER!

Screenshot-2016-08-19-at-10.16.47-PM.jpg
 

Zed

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Why the jitters over this one? Is it simply THAT much larger in scale or is something else at play here?
She went all J. Willie on it's ass didn't she!

The most comforting thing is that people in a public forum almost never get these calls right.

See ya Monday!
 
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So I gave it a listen and it sounds like another the stock market is gonna crash get your money out yesterday and buy Gold and Silver. I took this advice in 2007-8 seemed like a good idea at the time. Dow went up by a factor of 4. Widows and orphans laugh at Jim Willie et al until they don't I guess.
 

Varmint Hunter

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Varmint Hunter

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Monday marks the 33rd anniversary of the 1987 crash.
 
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Monday marks the 33rd anniversary of the 1987 crash.
I am a big fan of anni dates but go back and look at how many actually nail it to the day. Could be a hi could be a low could be an acceleration of the current phase.
 

Strawboss

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From my broker...

Dear Client,

In light of the potential market volatility associated with the upcoming United States presidential election on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, there will be a temporary change in Soft Edge Margining that will be effective for trade date Monday, October 26, 2020. Soft Edge Margining will end 30 minutes prior to a product's respective close. Currently, Soft Edge Margining ends 15 minutes prior to a product's respective close.

Soft Edge Margining Background:

An account becomes subject to automated liquidation once the account's equity falls below the minimum margin requirement of the portfolio. However, to allow clients the ability to manage risk prior to a liquidation IBKR calculates Soft Edge Margin (SEM) during the trading day and will generally allow a client to manage risk, without automated liquidations, where the margin deficiency is <= 10% of the account's NLV. When an account falls out of SEM, the account will become subject to automatic liquidation to bring the account back into full margin compliance.

Please note that we reserve the right to restrict Soft Edge access on any given day and may eliminate SEM completely in times of heightened volatility.

Regards,

Interactive Brokers Client Services
 

dpong

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Strawboss

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Increased volatility.

Batten down the hatches...

Increased IV adds value to options contracts...
 

Varmint Hunter

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Savage
 

Zed

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Zed

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Strawboss

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Sounds slightly ominous!
When I consider what the next 3 months are gonna look like here in the US...and I ponder what one single word would best describe what I am imagining...

Ominous works pretty damn good...

I really, really hope I am wrong...
 

Zed

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I am a big fan of anni dates but go back and look at how many actually nail it to the day. Could be a hi could be a low could be an acceleration of the current phase.
My question is why now? Why would you risk such a maneuver just prior to an election if there is a risk of it all going tits up? Unless of course that is what you want to happen. It just seems unnecessary, why not wait until you have certainty at least in the area of governance.
 

Zed

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Marty Armstrong...

QUESTION: Do you see the Fed moving to digital currency and perpetual bonds simultaneously with other nations? I think it would be harder to pull off here, but then again, they may have no choice. I guess they have a lot of reasons to get rid of Trump, but there’s more on the side of rejecting it, at least for now.

Interesting that a few analysts, websites, newsletters… have been calling for a Fed move to digital, as soon as November 5th or January 2021. Seems optimistic. However, I haven’t heard anyone mention bond default through the transition to perpetual.

ANSWER: No. First of all, the US debt market is the only game in town. Europe has destroyed its bond market as has Japan. That is why they are trying to get rid of Trump to further their globalist agenda. However, the conservative Democrats will also reject it as well. Our political report will be up for sale on Monday which is not just 2020, but the next 12 years, The arrays are shocking when we run them on politics. There is an increasing risk that the Democratic Party will split just as the Republicans did in 1912 when Teddy Roosevelt started his Progressive Party. The Democrats face the same crisis – conservative (middle of the road) v extreme socialist left.



There are a host of problems. They cannot move to digital so easily because over 60% of paper dollars are outside USA used globally as the alternative. Today, the Treasury and Board of Governors staffs estimate that about 60% of all U.S. banknotes in circulation, or around $500 billion and growing, is held outside the United States. U.S. banknotes are the #1 hedge against the currencies in Europe and Asia because the USA has never canceled its currency so a $100 bill from 1934 is still valid which not the case for any nation in Europe. They printed $1,000, $5,000, and $10,000 notes in 1934 which are still legal tender.

It is not so easy for the USA to move digital and at best, it would have to be a two-tier system without canceling the paper money.
 

Zed

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More...

Blog/Bonds
Posted Oct 17, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Interest on savings instruments (i.e. CD) for 1 yr terms is non-existent at <= 1.0%. Why would interest rates increase in a digital currency system/world?


ANSWER: The only reason rates would rise is by simultaneously converting the debt to perpetual. They have to end Keynesian Economics. They cannot raise rates as long as they have to buy the debt as in Europe. Therefore, we see most countries preparing for the real BIG BANG which is the default on dent by converting outstanding debt to perpetual, then they no longer need to artificially suppress interest rates they cannot raise if the debt is still issued.
I tend to get called in because they know I will say the truth. I do not take funds from any group and we pride ourselves on independence. It is a club because unless you have been called in by one government you will not get into others. Very interesting criteria. Nevertheless, I believe you will see this simultaneously. A digital currency swap will allow then the perfect excuse to change the debt structure and then they do not have to outright default.

Big Bang began in 2015.75 within about one year of them moving to negative interest rates in 2014. The next crack is due 2021 and the big break post-2024. We are now entering the next phase and we are running out of time. That is what these lockdowns are really about. They know civil unrest will rise when the public realizes that the old financial systems are collapsing.
 

Zed

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Varmint Hunter

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FWIW
Yesterday the Debt Clock had the dollar to silver ratio at 3885.
Currently that ratio is at 4218.
 

Zed

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Not sure exactly what that ratio means, but I would happily exchange a few ounces of silver for dollars at either ratio.;)
US debt in oz of silver.

I'm not sure how relevant the idea is.
 

Zed

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My broker has a "high call volume warning" (as in telephone traffic) sign up again today. The general market is up 1% or so, we normally only see these warnings when there is blood the street.... hmmmm. Big bang prelude?

I dunno!
 

savvydon

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My broker has a "high call volume warning" (as in telephone traffic) sign up again today. The general market is up 1% or so, we normally only see these warnings when there is blood the street.... hmmmm. Big bang prelude?

I dunno!
Asian markets up as well currently, but so far the dollar and metals are static...
 

BeefJerky

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Zed

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Varmint Hunter

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dpong

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Miners and general stock market are bid higher in premarket trade.
 

dpong

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Dollar down 0.50%.
 

dpong

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I'm not trading this, but a convincing break above $15 for DBA would make this a buy in my opinion.

The W shaped double bottom and then a strong run higher. Currently consolidating the gain.

[Also has an imperfect cup & handle look to it.]

mXx4X5GU.png
 

dpong

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Intermediate momentum chart of DBA is a weekly chart with price oscillated around the 10 week moving average. The downtrend line is supported by 4 weekly highs. [The first and highest bar doesn't count, but too lazy to move the line once I got the angle right.]

[A break above the sharply angled downtrend line would, I think, signal the end of consolidation.]

J4BzlCXQ.png
 
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